If there are Riots over fees what will they do when this hits?

Kia Ora,

Before we get into todays topic thanks to Simon for his comment.

Yes there could be repercussions as gang seeks out weak links. But in the main any rise in crime & violent crime actually comes from people cut off from their supplies. They often move to more violent crime to get the currency as cost of their favourite drug goes up due to decrease in supply & they need more currency fast.

Yet again mayhem rules on the streets of London but it is only over the rasing of school fees.

Well what is going to happen when people find out their retirement fund or superannuation has all been taken?

Many will not believe that but just do a search for the 60 minutes clip on the 401K for New Zealanders one of the US equals to our Kiwisaver super scheme. Its an eye opener.

In a forum recently some Australians were talking about how the same is happening with their scheme which was supposed to be the best in the world. Now I have word that Australia has moved to allow people to control their own, but as some US commentators have said of their 401K it is letting people who know nothing about investing into investing, so basically another way to steal their currency. People need to educate themselves & take control of their own lives.

With the right knowledge they can do well in the markets whilst all others are loosing out.
The French Revolution
So if as one commentator has said in recent days that 95% of the world(definitely western world) will be bankrupt within the next three years, the value of their most prize possessions plummet(search for Mike Maloney Dead cat bounce on youtube), their savings for retirement are gone & their education counts for nothing as a new slavery system is set up to replace the education system.

What are the riots going to be like?

Or is it going to be a revolution or two?

If Wikileaks gets the chance will it be its release of the details from a large bank that will trigger it to accelerate once people know the truth?

Would the information that comes out be something like you get on this clip Crash JP Morgue , look it up on the internet.

Crime is about to rise again based on the information on those three clips alone if people haven't prepared themselves.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Drugs, Domestic Violence, Copper theft & Burglary!

Kia Ora,

Was going to write about rats today but then seen this in an investment news letter I was reading.

It was the answer to a question about what caused most killings. In New Zealand Domestic Violence would rate one then possibly drugs or drunk drivers.

Copper theft was main point of article in letter due to rising price, but there has been a warning by New Zealand police on this exact point recently.

With the conitnued worsening of economic conditions people have been cutting the copper earthwires on power poles. Not only does that put the person cutting the wires life at risk but it also, once completed, causes the ground around for something like 8 metres to become electrified.

Not sure how burglary fits in but as the quote comes from a Sheriff in the US were home owners are more likely to have a firearm that could explain both copper & burglary been in the mix to begin with.

Funny but just yesterday it was also mentioned by New Zealand police in one district for the upswing in crime. They said they were getting more in particular domestic violence & alcohol induced violence as usual this time of year but it was worse due to the prevailing economic conditions.

With the financial situation expected to get worse by a long way over the coming months if not years there will only be a further increase in crime.
True stories of crime from the District attorney's office
Not to mention the pressure that is going to go on with less drugs on the street after a big drugs raid today. With as it was reported over the radio station armed police storming a gang pad in Auckland at the same time drug raids took place in Napier.

I support the police in this task but it will lead to in the short term at least an increase in crime, in particular burglaries & violent crime.

Overnight austerity measures have again been the target of demonstrations & riots in Britain. What is happening now & the way the governments are handling it, in particular the US answer of quantitive easing(another way of saying printing currency) is what led to the French Revolution.

This is why the Chinese are trying to manage theirs disregarding threats & comments from the US. They know from their long history that the greatest threat is from their own people especially in this part of the economic cycle.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

To be a Judge you need to be completely out of touch!

Kia Ora,

Not sure what world judges live in but it at times seems to be not the real world!

A judge here in Christchurch has found that the police were wrong in arresting people at a boyracer gathering based on what has happened at previous gatherings. Those people were arrested wrongly because the judges opinion is that they never intended to use violence.

Excuse me?

Obviously he has never had to deal with these groups as if they gather in an area such as they did on this occassion they have every intention of causing mayhem & destroying property.

Residents are scared as it is & any attempt to reason with these groups is usually meet with bottles thrown & even people attacked or threatened in their own homes.

This judge has three options. Get out & experience the real world before his next case, resign or be sacked. They are clearly not up to the task of deciding cases based on a blinkered view of what goes on at these gatherings. It is now actually two judges who are out of touch with the real world after another judge made a decision in the same vein about another of this group.
Secularism unphilosophical, immoral, and anti-social: verbatim report of a
Meanwhile the police again come under scrutiny over police chases as two more people have died as a result of fleeing the police. One group were in a stolen car & the other was a lone speeding driver.

Now the police minister also mentioned that in another similar incident where she was accompanying police a shotgun had been found in a vehicle. Not sure when or where that was but it is time people realized if someone runs from police there is usually another reason behind it.

For example the vehicle that run from police here in Christchurch & killed three on Moorhouse Avenue the driver was forbidden to drive, over the legal alcohol limit & had a long criminal record also from photographs of funeral for this person he was connected to a gang(crypts).

Also unless I am very much mistaken he & his mate were two of the four who attacked me three weeks earlier, so I won't waste any tears over their deaths. Had the police apprehended them for the attack on me they were up for aggravated robbery & possibly GBH since I needed an operation after the attack.
Naming the Enemy: Anti-Corporate Social Movements Confront Globalization
People who run will be caught in the end & it will affect things like their ability to travel.

The police need greater powers to deal with these issues & greater backing from a judiciary that has a grip on reality.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is That list really a Security Threat?

Kia Ora,

The big news world wide is of course the list Wikileaks has released on supposed industries & assets the US wants most to protect.

But what does the list really tell us?

First that in some cases all the eggs are in one basket so need to have a careful eye kept on them.

So there needs to be a decision as to whether the eggs need to be split up or just left as they are with maybe enhanced security & are they really that important?
Modern Insurgencies and Counter-Insurgencies: Guerrillas and their Opponents since 1750 (Warfare and History)
Secondly that maybe the US still hasn't fully come to grips with the fact that though those maybe important targets especially in a conventional war situation the targets might be a lot different in a terrorist campaign.

It is a lesson from Vietnam that seemed to have been overlooked when you touched down in Iraq. Insurgents & terrorists might be more worried about getting good media coverage & into the hearts & minds of the people back home.

Vietnam's turning point is said to be the occupation during the Tet offensive of the US embassy in Saigon & its affect on the American mindset back home.

That is not to say many in the American services were not trying but in a big organization from a country that likes to stick rigidly to procedures to think outside the square gets you in trouble. But in this type of warfare it is those on the ground, soldiers & NCO's that make the difference especially in the important hearts & minds of locals. Not throwing currency at the issue.
The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One
Now the US might of at least learned part of that lesson as it was rumoured during our time in Baghdad that a certain radio message one day inside the Green Zone was due to five insurgents managing to get inside the Chancery of the US embassy.

It is almost likely behind the suppression of generally known information(like a suicide bombing because you generally knew about them alright)to keep the public on the forces side. Today we have the internet so a lot was known to be or seen to be going on was in the public domain, hence a loss of support anyway. Wikileaks has only confirmed what was already believed to be or known to be going on.

Thirdly that terrorists & insrugents do exactly like we do & carry out reconnaissance to see what targets & their weaknesses are available. I wouldn't be surprised if all the places mentioned are not already on lists of terrorist cells.

Now they regularly did this in Iraq & we were picking them up doing their recon's & reporting it to the US military who promptly ignored us since we were private security. Almost everytime a suicide bomb was detonated within a day or on the day of reporting.

Three guys in a car with binoculars or another vehicle with a video camera all trained on one point at different times is usually a good give away.
The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual
You only have to look at main target on 9/11 to see how effective an attack can be on the mindset of people.

Look at it from a terrorist point of view. The actual important targets might be too hard to get at so what can they hit on the side that will still have an effect?
Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (PSI Classics of the Counterinsurgency Era)
Now I go back to the Rugby World Cup here in New Zealand as perfect target.

Slack security & likely to be not much better next year as no one thinks it will ever happen here(the belief there is no threat is the biggest threat).

Three prime targets.

Party Central Auckland but been main venue likely to have highest secruity presence.

Game the US team is to play for some reason on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. What idiot allowed that to happen needs to be sacked. So high priority target right there. Gets world wide coverage.
The Counter-Insurgency Manual
The third has always been my pick until that game was scheduled for the anniversary.

Christchurch Rugby road, bars & any large gathering such as in Cathederal Square.

Why?

We have an American base nearby. Don't hit the base but in the city it is in. There are going to be a lot of tourists in town & a co-ordinated attack on several points at once(as they have done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bali, London & New Delhi)will be world wide news in less than 10 minutes & will be felt across the world.

Hitting a so called peaceful country(most peaceful in the world apparently) will have a greater effect than trying to take on identified important targets.
Counterinsurgency
To really counter terrorists you have to think like one.

So is the list helpful to terrorists. I don't think so as they will have either identified them for what ever reason or have ones they think are important of their own.

So what is really been hidden or are governments trying to stop?

Probably the release of the information on one of the large American banks which could be the trigger which causes the collapse of the worlds financial system.

Or as Warren Buffett says, as it will take down the derivatives market, the real "Weapons of Mass Destruction"! This will lead to the the break down of society!

It is going to happen anyway based on the history of finance, but will just likely happen quicker depending on what is released.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Mindset on Security needs to change!

Kia Ora,

A news item has shown a breach of security at a New Zealand Military base two years ago with graffitti been applied to an Australian air force plane.

In response a security fence was erected around the airfield. Now to people overseas that might seem far fetched but most New Zealand military bases until recent years have been open to anyone.

The camp I spent most of my army career in used to be so open. The week we arrived there a member of the Soviet Embassy had been caught because they were sitting out front with a clip board noting the registration of cars entering & leaving the camp. The KGB is alleged to have used New Zealand as its training base since our security was so slack.

We have put fences up but not much else has changed. Security in general is now provided by private companies but with minimum manning.

The airforce response to the photographs of the damage to the planes has been we are providing great security. I know they aren't & they have been told by a former soldier that they weren't, but they knew better.
Private Armed Forces and Global Security: A Guide to the Issues
But it not just there. Encountered the same issue when tendering for the security contract at a defence headquarters venue. When we didn't get the contract they sent reasons for not obtaining it.

First was not going to comply with the NZQA(qualification) requirement. As was pointed out in reply & in the tender document minimum standard was ex military so highest standard & level of security(paradox here as the military has access to this knowledge but doesn't use it) which is much much higher than NZQA. In fact I wouldn't hire people with NZQA unless they had the experience & background to back it up. The standards as applied now to those qualifications are too low for them to be even in the industry.
Guarding Against Espionage, Sabotage, & Subversion - Military Base Security (1953)
Second point was no one visited the site. Reply was didn't have too as requirements were spelt out but also since the issue of the tender had blown up in the news media from footage they were lucky no one did as tender would of been at least doubled.

Last point they had was tender was outside their budget.

Reply here was due to nature of facility payments planned were greater than normal security. Also the fact that outlined current provider at the time could not provide the requirements of current laws with the numbers they had. Therefore numbers planned for took into account the laws & changes of laws due to ocme into effect.
Private Armed Forces and Global Security: A Guide to the Issues (Contemporary Military, Strategic, and Security Issues)
Had no reply but what that said to me was they had not carried out a proper risk assessment of possible threats & that the laws regarding employment did not apply to government departments.

We need to get our mindset sorted. This is a recurring theme you see in New Zealand & therefore in my blogs regarding security. Why wait until people are killed again by terrorist actions?

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

The Real Weapons of Mass Destruction!

Kia Ora,

As we all know the US & its coalition of the willing invaded Iraq on the pretext to find the weapons of mass destruction in 2003, but never found any. They knew Iraq had had them as the US allegedly sold the weapons to the Iraqis(be interesting to see what Wikileaks comes up with on this).

Many believed the real reason for the invasion was to gain the oil (in 2004 an official connected to the oil talks with Iraq told me that there was at that point in time an estimated US$37 Trillion worth of oil untouched in Iraq).

Another reason has since surfaced in the supposed asking by Saddaam at the time of all payments for Iraqi oil be made in Euros which at the time would of allegedly collapsed the US financial system.

But there are bigger weapons of mass destruction out there & all put in place by the US.

That is the name Warren Buffett gave to the derivatives market. Derivatives trading can be quite fun & have dabbled in it with options trading. But most of the derivatives are not traded on the markets & that is where the issues arise.

An estimated 90% of the market in derivatives is done behind closed doors in particular with those like CDO's in which mortgages are on sold.

Don't know what CDO's are or how it works? Basically when a bank or finance company gives you a mortgage you create the currency as it did not exist before you signed the mortgage. So you have just expanded the currency in the world. But the bank or company does it even better, it packages that mortgage with others, some good & some bad & on sells them to another bank or financial group.
The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Second Edition
The entity that gave you the mortgage then collects the interest & payments for the mortgage charges fees on it & the rest goes to the group that bought the CDO.

The problems start when the mortgagees can no longer pay the interest or principle on property. The property then goes into a mortgagee sale or foreclosure in the US. Further problems then come to light as has happened in the US when a legal challenge found the bank who first issued the mortgage then tries to foreclose cannot as they no longer own the mortgage.

This is definitely an issue when the mortgage is a sub prime mortgage as those takng it out where never likely to be able to pay. The next round of a high number of subprime loans are about to hit early in 2011. In fact a lot more than in 2008 & getting bigger as the year moves towards June.
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
So what has all this got to do with weapons of mass destruction?

The financial crisis of 2008 was mainly due to the derivatives market dropping from an estimated US$ 750 Trillion to US$600 Trillion. Whilst the rest of the worlds economy has stumbled from one crisis to another this market has bounced back on course to allgedly have reached its expected 2010 level of a quadrillion with comments it may have doubled during the year to 2 quadrillion which keeps it on target to reach a quintillion by 2020(this is a market that started in 1990 at US$10 Trillion). This market was only allowed to trade on the markets until December 2000 when it was allowed to carryout the 'over the counter' or behind closed door deals.

So What?
All About Derivatives Second Edition (All About Series)
It is through these markets certain items such as oil are manipulated up & others such as silver are manipulated down.

Even a small percentage of collapse involves huge sums of currency. The ways to overcome the fallout of any hiccup in this market generally one way or the other bring about as one commentator stated 'social destablization'.

What?

In other words crime goes up & to areas not normally targeted as happened in New Zealand over the weekend when a pet shop was held up. Somewhere you would not expect to have a lot of currency on hand on a Saturday morning.
Derivatives Demystified: A Step-by-Step Guide to Forwards, Futures, Swaps and Options (The Wiley Finance Series)
You also get protests or riots over school fees, rise in pensions, other austerity measures & more union unrest. Sound familiar?

So if a much bigger amount of sub prime loans are about to come due with the attached CDO's & it hits the derivatives market what then?

More businesses out of business. Greater unemployment therefore greater stress on food & shelter for families resulting in greater unrest & crime. As you delve more into this topic you start to realize why survivalist groups have sprung up in the US once people realized what was going on.

The world has become so reliant on the debt based economy that any slight tremor(like a Sovereign debt crisi in Europe spreading next to the UK then US) could send the house of cards falling down.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is Secrecy necessary?

Kia Ora,

Well Wikileaks has put the cat amongst the pigeons with great effort been put into trying to shut down the site & many questions been asked about the charges alleged against the founder.

Is Secrecy necessary? It is a question many are asking in the wake of the releases.

Overall there has not a lot of real secrets been released this time around. Opinons that are not that much different than people who follow what is going on in places like Pakistan.

Of course they have to be careful that nothing puts people's lives in danger, but overall so far there really hasn't been a lot that people didn't already think was happening. These releases just confirmed the truth.

Some have been on civilians actually killed in Iraq. Though for many in America that might of seemed until now like propaganda against the US, the standing comment by Iraqis when there was when a comment was made about the population was "26 million but now 25 million because the Americans kill so many."
Read My Pins: Stories from a Diplomat's Jewel Box
But is secrecy necessary?

To a certain extent yes.

There are things that are carried out in the name of countries to allow the citizens to carry on their lives as they wish but would not like to know about.

Then there are those situations where to reveal information would put lives at risk. Or the legal risk of those opinons becoming known.

Another reason might be future intentions where it would give an unfair advantage.
Diplomat's Dictionary (Cross-Cultural Negotiation Books)
Overall a little more of what governments alwasy claim they provide but don't, transparency & freedom of speech would be good. When you look into what has happened in the US alone in the way the people have been hoodwinked it is no wonder it is the land of the conspiracy theory because it is actually true. From the turning of the education system into the modern slavery system starting in about 1903 to the secret meetings to set up the private bank now known as the Federal reserve starting in 1904 it never seems to end.

Is some secreacy necessary? Yes, but governments & bureaucrats been more open & honest might just make this world a better place.

It might just remove some of the frustration people feel because they know that things are not as they are told & don't feel the need to lash out.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz