Is That list really a Security Threat?

Kia Ora,

The big news world wide is of course the list Wikileaks has released on supposed industries & assets the US wants most to protect.

But what does the list really tell us?

First that in some cases all the eggs are in one basket so need to have a careful eye kept on them.

So there needs to be a decision as to whether the eggs need to be split up or just left as they are with maybe enhanced security & are they really that important?
Modern Insurgencies and Counter-Insurgencies: Guerrillas and their Opponents since 1750 (Warfare and History)
Secondly that maybe the US still hasn't fully come to grips with the fact that though those maybe important targets especially in a conventional war situation the targets might be a lot different in a terrorist campaign.

It is a lesson from Vietnam that seemed to have been overlooked when you touched down in Iraq. Insurgents & terrorists might be more worried about getting good media coverage & into the hearts & minds of the people back home.

Vietnam's turning point is said to be the occupation during the Tet offensive of the US embassy in Saigon & its affect on the American mindset back home.

That is not to say many in the American services were not trying but in a big organization from a country that likes to stick rigidly to procedures to think outside the square gets you in trouble. But in this type of warfare it is those on the ground, soldiers & NCO's that make the difference especially in the important hearts & minds of locals. Not throwing currency at the issue.
The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One
Now the US might of at least learned part of that lesson as it was rumoured during our time in Baghdad that a certain radio message one day inside the Green Zone was due to five insurgents managing to get inside the Chancery of the US embassy.

It is almost likely behind the suppression of generally known information(like a suicide bombing because you generally knew about them alright)to keep the public on the forces side. Today we have the internet so a lot was known to be or seen to be going on was in the public domain, hence a loss of support anyway. Wikileaks has only confirmed what was already believed to be or known to be going on.

Thirdly that terrorists & insrugents do exactly like we do & carry out reconnaissance to see what targets & their weaknesses are available. I wouldn't be surprised if all the places mentioned are not already on lists of terrorist cells.

Now they regularly did this in Iraq & we were picking them up doing their recon's & reporting it to the US military who promptly ignored us since we were private security. Almost everytime a suicide bomb was detonated within a day or on the day of reporting.

Three guys in a car with binoculars or another vehicle with a video camera all trained on one point at different times is usually a good give away.
The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual
You only have to look at main target on 9/11 to see how effective an attack can be on the mindset of people.

Look at it from a terrorist point of view. The actual important targets might be too hard to get at so what can they hit on the side that will still have an effect?
Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (PSI Classics of the Counterinsurgency Era)
Now I go back to the Rugby World Cup here in New Zealand as perfect target.

Slack security & likely to be not much better next year as no one thinks it will ever happen here(the belief there is no threat is the biggest threat).

Three prime targets.

Party Central Auckland but been main venue likely to have highest secruity presence.

Game the US team is to play for some reason on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. What idiot allowed that to happen needs to be sacked. So high priority target right there. Gets world wide coverage.
The Counter-Insurgency Manual
The third has always been my pick until that game was scheduled for the anniversary.

Christchurch Rugby road, bars & any large gathering such as in Cathederal Square.

Why?

We have an American base nearby. Don't hit the base but in the city it is in. There are going to be a lot of tourists in town & a co-ordinated attack on several points at once(as they have done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bali, London & New Delhi)will be world wide news in less than 10 minutes & will be felt across the world.

Hitting a so called peaceful country(most peaceful in the world apparently) will have a greater effect than trying to take on identified important targets.
Counterinsurgency
To really counter terrorists you have to think like one.

So is the list helpful to terrorists. I don't think so as they will have either identified them for what ever reason or have ones they think are important of their own.

So what is really been hidden or are governments trying to stop?

Probably the release of the information on one of the large American banks which could be the trigger which causes the collapse of the worlds financial system.

Or as Warren Buffett says, as it will take down the derivatives market, the real "Weapons of Mass Destruction"! This will lead to the the break down of society!

It is going to happen anyway based on the history of finance, but will just likely happen quicker depending on what is released.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

So where are the explosives?

Kia Ora,

Some more coverage of the Commonwealth games in India & again I am concerned about something in pictures we are getting. There is something not quite right with all the security we see.

There was also a warning of a report that some explosives & weapons have been smuggled in already for terrorist attacks.

It shouldn't but that report got me chuckling.

Why chuckling over explosives & weapons been smuggled in?

Well with the concern over the state of some of the venues & the Games village as the pressure goes on I would expect that some of the security would of been relaxed to get the extra workers in.

That is where the fun begins. Have any weapons been smuggled in & left in dead letter boxes for uplift later?
Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Understanding Threats and Responses in the Post 9/11 World (3rd Edition)
Then there is the explosives.

In Iraq road workers were found to be laying IED's in the roads as they paved them. Many only discovered by the wires sticking out at the side of the road.

On at least one occassion an IED was placed in the gap between some blast walls.

Then the workers at at least one facility for making blast walls were reportedly found placing IED's in the blast walls.
Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Understanding the New Security Environment, Readings and Interpretations, Revised & Updated 2004 (Trade Edition)
Then how good are the bomb searches. Close to at least one check point to the Green Zone in Baghdad an IED was placed each night & removed each morning by US troops.

So what has Iraq got to do with the Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India?

Terrorist tactics transfer quickly world wide, especially when they work. Already there have been a lot of similarities in tactics at times in Afghanistan & Iraq. With Al Qaeda established in Pakistan & groups fighting in Kashmir it would not take a lot for that information to be passed onto groups in India.
Debating Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Conflicting Perspectives on Causes, Contexts, and Responses
Or they can just get it off the internet.

So though not really an amusing subject you can just see it happening, especially as the pressure comes on to get the place up to scratch demanded by competing nations.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Intelligence! What is it & how is it useful?

Kia Ora,

There is the standing joke that Military intelligence is an oxy moron as it doesn't really exist.

But properly provided information can build a good intelligence picture to allow you to defeat the enemy in a military sense or impact on crime in the civilian world.

The problem is what is intelligence & how to use it?

What was noticeable in Iraq was the US preponderence on electronic intelligence over human intelligence (either from 'spies' or those on the ground). At one part we were told that nothing happened unless it was witnessed by a US soldier(that was later extended to coalition soldier).

More than once we, as private security reported suspicious activity on the entrances to the Green Zone, only to be ignored by the US soldiers. Each time within a day or two there would be a suicide bombing at that gate.

I see now since 9/11 the US has developed so many conflicting intelligence gathering organizations, both government & private, that most of the reports are not even read. Much of the information gathered is an exact duplication of another groups & the plan to co ordinate is not happening.

In fact it is so bad that they believe the US has actually made itself less safe as so far attempts of terrorist attacks have been thwarted by normal citizens not the vaunted intelligence network.

It seems to be the same here in NZ when you call in suspicious activity to the police. Those answering the phones at police communications have no idea that those small bits of information going into their system help make up the intelligence picture of an area.

In the late 80's I was taught a very important lesson in what intelligence is & how it is best used.

The I.O. (Intelligence Officer) of our unit had come from the British army. As part of virtually whole of army exercise we were expecting good intelligence, but all we were getting from upline was a summary of the major incidents that we all knew about anyway.

What the I.O. had done though was have his whole cell bring some civilians up. He then had them out talking to locals about information. After each contact with the enemy by our unit, he would interview those involved to get the little things like tactics used, weapons & clothes.
Those were the things that were not coming through, but told us a lot about the enemy.

It is no difference when dealing with crime. If you first go into say a static security guard job (were you are confined to the one site) it is good to note things that seem suspicious or just general activity.

Then you start to see the things that are out of the norm.

When can this be of use?

The NZ police like police everywhere are for ever asking for information if an incident happens. By having those small suspicious incidents noted it builds immediately a picture of what was out of place at the time. The initial reports also allow the police to get a picture of normal activity in that area.

It is still all intelligence & often the most important parts. It is not often the smoking gun that will be found, but the out of place comment or suspicious incident could be what is needed to get an arrest.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Green Zone Changes hands!

Kia Ora,

Well the news has come through that the last part of the 'Green Zone' in Baghdad Iraq has changed hands & the US has handed control over to the Iraqi forces.

In the article I read from the 'TheTimes' an Iraqi MP points out that one of the issues for the US is they used to lock themselves in the Green Zone & never really learnt about Iraqi culture or the people.

For those of us that worked there is was one of the first things we noticed & been Kiwis, in particular ex military it was one of the things our military was always big on,  cultural awareness.

It also helped  that we understood much of the Iraqi tribal culture probably better than anyone else as it was often similar to Maori Culture.

Arab time is on a slower scale than Maori time we know that for sure.

The article though is inaccurate in parts about the Green Zone. Not all parts had 24 hour electricity, there were an estimated 30,000 Iraqis living in there & it wasn't always that safe. That wasn't just from the the mortars, rockets or suicide bombers at the gates either.

Most of my time was spent in the so called 'Red' zone  & apart from the fact you were isolated, in the most part you felt safer, but you had to be ready.

So coming back to NZ were does that fit in with security here?

At times in security you have to deal with those living on the street or in an emotional state & so it can be very similar to applying the cultural awareness. You give the most respect to those who have the least.

In the first instance that is how you approach the issue, but it does not always work out that way.

The Skills required are similar or in most cases the same, it is how you apply it that is different. Most of all experience counts. But you always have to be ready.

                                              http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz