Could New Zealand really handle a terrorist incident at Rugby World Cup 2011?

Kia Ora,

Well the New Delhi Commonwealth Games are over & thankfully there were no terrorist attacks. But in saying that the terrorists have already achieved their aim. Just the measures that needed to be taken shows that.

It is actually as if the terrorists when planning 9/11 were taking a leaf out of Ronald Reagans book. His plan had always been to act all war like but in reality bankrupt the Soviet Union by engaging in an arms race. It worked & right now the same seems to be happening to the US(therefore by connection the world) due to the amounts having to be spent on security & wars.

So now here our attention really turns to the Rugby World cup 2011 & the security requirements.

New Zealand just doesn't have the resources India had to throw at it. So therefore we have to think of how to deploy our resources of NZ military, NZ police & NZ Security Industry.

But could New Zealand really handle a Terrorist attack?

Frankly I very much doubt it. It is hard to handle something you have never experienced before. We have had terrorist incidents & have them daily in issues with organized crime but a real terrorist attack there is no way we are ready. Even the recent earthquake here in Christchurch has not shown how bad things could be as no one was killed & emergency services were able to get access quickly to damaged areas.
Terrorism Today: The Past, The Players, The Future (4th Edition)
We have to only look at the recently released information on the London train bombings in Britain to show there was chaos & for sometime the authorities did not comprehend there was a terrorist attack. Of all the cities in the world expected to best handle a terrorist attack London would rank as number one.

So if they descended into chaos how is New Zealand going to handle it? Doubt it very much. Police officers I know said same thing happened here in Christchurch when the dry ice bottle bombs went off.

On the same day I was reading about the information now been released on the train bombings an incident happened as if to emphasize what has to be be prepared for.

In Yemen there were two bomb blasts. The second was detonated once the emergency services were on the scene.
Globalisation and The Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions
It is a common terrorist tactic taken one step further by suicide bombers.

This of course brings in to question the recent issue of NZ police having more access to firearms. First there needs to be a huge increase in training, then the weapons need to be worn or more readily accessible than been in a lock box.

Why? The second part first is if a suicide bomber detonates as has been stated before you need to realize it within 30 seconds & be ready for the follow up. Not wait for an investigation or four investigations to decide.

It is the follow up that brings the lack of training into question.

Is that vehicle refusing to stop a suicide bomber or just some ignorant civilian who thinks they don't have to comply? Or even worse here a rubber necker.
Future Terror & Counter Terrorism ~ A World in Shadows: Terrorism (Volume Seven)
So the training has to be so much higher & as the police do now use rules of engagement, but again to a higher level where a split second decision to fire a warning shot or not has to be made! Coupled with the warning shot are the arguments over to where best put the warning shot because of the implications of what happens to the round after been fired.

From footage of NZ police trying to shoot a dog running around none of that was taken into account at the time. In fact those doing the shooting were lucky not to be shot by their mates.

To not shoot means on your call rest your & the lives of those you are protecting.
Portrait of a Decrepit Nation
So again the question is "Could New Zealand really handle a terrorist attack at the Rugby World Cup 2011". Again the answer is no. Most of what we hear is based on preparing for violence & drunkeness. Right now we should already be getting Kiwi's ready for the security that will be required to host such an event.

That organizers have not even thought about security has been shown in the fact that the USA has been scheduled to play on the tenth annivesary of 9/11. What more of a symbolic target do you want?
The New Jackals: Ramzi Yousef, Osama bin Laden, and the Future of Terrorism
I have said it before. It is going to take a huge change in mindset from the NZ police, the NZ Security Industry & most of all the NZ public to be ready for the type of security requirements now needed for an international tournament.

Yes the terrorists are achieving their aim by bankrupting the World, but what happens if you don't do anything? You need to be best prepared you can be.

NEW ZEALAND IS NOT READY!

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

So it begins to unwind!

Kia Ora,

The Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India finish later this week & after numerous protests over the amount of security hampering the crowds it would appear from comments from one of administrators that security will be relaxed a little.

You always knew that the constant moaning by the bigger teams about the restrictive security would result in the strings been loosened.

Smart terrorists will wait because if there is no attacks after some lessening in security then the pressure will go on to lessen it further.

I have already heard one New Zealand media rep say that the terrorist threat had not eventuated.

It just shows how little they know.
The History of Terrorism: From Antiquity to al Qaeda
The most dangerous time is at the beginning or end of an event. Or arriving & leaving a site.

A common thought in Iraq (& from what I have read & heard in Afghanistan also applies) was you were not there until you had your feet on the ground & you hadn't got clear of the threat until you hit the ground at home.
Inside Terrorism
What this meant was when flying into Iraq especially on your first day on a contract, it wasn't real until you were there. During one suicide bombing campaign in Baghdad those of us returning from leave were stuck with a group going in for the first time for nine days in Amman, Jordan.

When leaving it was not uncommon for you to have to report several days in a row to the airport to see if anything was flying. At one time several hundred people were living in the airport building in conditions that made living in areas of Christchurch post the earthquake seem like five star hotels. All waiting to leave.

Then on one occassion three hotels in Amman were hit by suicide bombers.
Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind
Take that back to the games in Delhi & just because there have been no terrorist attacks yet, does not mean there will not be. The games are not over for the visitors until they touch down in their own country.

To think otherwise is to not keep in touch with the reality of the situation.

But if an attack does happen it will be India who get the blame despite the pressure put on the games administration to lessen the security blanket.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is there likely to be a Terrorist attack at the Commonwealth Games now they are underway?

Kia Ora,

So now the Commonwealth Games are underway is there a likelyhood of a terrorist attack still? Is all that suffocating security still required?

Well in a word. Yes!

In fact as the games wear on if there is going to be an attack it is more likely to occur later in the games.

By looking at how Al Qaeda in particular has carried out some attacks in Iraq & Afghanistan I see the possibility of an armed assault on the bridge leading into the games village. From reports & images on TV there are still concerns about the security set up there. Either during the assault or after then vehicle bombs making their way in along with surviving assaulters to targeted team facilities.
Inside Terrorism
The teams most likely to be hit are Australia, England (as the most identifiable team of 'Britain') for their high profile in Iraq & Afghanistan.

The other is New Zealand.

First for our perceived connection to Iraq & connection to Afghanistan.

Then there has been the issues of late that have highlighted New Zealand in India & not in a good light.
The Mind of the Terrorist: The Psychology of Terrorism from the IRA to al-Qaeda
Initially there was the complaints laid by the NZ chef de mission which highlighted the poor state of the games village. Some of that was quite well received in India as complaints by locals fell on deaf ears(sounds very familiar to what happens here).

That was followed by the issue over the alleged words said by the CEO of the Commonwealth Games who just happens to be a New Zealander that Indians felt were a slight on the people of New Delhi.
Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind
Since then there have been the Paul Henry issues first regarding the Governor General who just happens to be Fijian Indian which has been followed in India with wideapread coverage of him making fun of an Indian government ministers name.

Not a good look & Paul often engages mouth before brain but he does like Hone raise issues that New Zealand need to look at itself & discuss. They both say what they are thinking & many others are but won't speak up to say. It is actually a NZ trait not to say anything but go whispering behind peoples backs. Just maybe things need to be said in a different way.
Islam And Terrorism
But all that has raised the New Zealand profile not in a good way so immediately the team becomes a target.

So why later in the games? Human nature!

The games are 10 days in duration so as they wear on the security teams will naturally lower their awareness. If you wait until after the closing ceremony then everyone will think, well we got that far it is all good, security will sub consciously at least lower their guard, teams or those still there will party. What better time to hit?
Terrorism Today: The Past, The Players, The Future (4th Edition)
I have actually been part of a high profile security team where one of the supervisors actually said when we caught someone inside who shouldn't be, "oh don't worry about it. We have done well for two & a half days." Excuse me?

There is also an issue I have raised previously which a reporter noted in their article on the games.

First the reporter talks about how suffocating the security is but then talks about better too much than too little if it prevents an attack.
Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century (6th Edition)
Their next comment though makes my point. It was the frustration when you are going through check after check when others just waltz on by just over the way.

As pointed out this was happening in Amman, Jordan at the hotel I stayed at. But it also happened in Baghdad.

Sent with other members of my team to gain the latest pass or piece of paper needed to work there(from memory it was the Iraqi firearms licence) we had to enter the same building as the Interim Iraqi Parliament. One of the team suddenly says "look at that!" A bodyguard for an Iraqi Member of Parliament handed the MP his firearm to smuggle in as MP's did not go through a metal detector.

Of course later on three bombs were smuggled in to a cafe used by Iraqi MP's & exploded.
Insurgency and Terrorism: From Revolution to Apocalypse, Second Edition, Revised
Our response was once inside having cleared our weapons, was to 'make safe'(load a magazine back on our weapons but not cock it) as if there were weapons floating around unknown we had to be ready.

So is the threat over? No way. It is actually increasing.

Current issues highlighting New Zealand is in a bad light that makes our team a highly likely target in any attack.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

New Zealanders continue to support Terrorists!

Kia Ora,

Today was going to be a blog about where I see likely terrorist strike at the Commonwealth Games currently been staged in Delhi, India. But that will have to wait as yesterday again showed how people in New Zealand support terrorist activities in our own country.
Dan Rather Reports #235: Into Africa(2 DVD Set - WMVHD DVD & Standard Definition DVD)
Of course there are the many who support organized crime in the guise of the terrorist groups commonly known as gangs. In reality they are terrorist groups. Nothing more, nothing less.

Then we have those who support the internationally recognized terrorist umbrella groups such as eco green type entities.

What I am talking about here though is the three terrorists who attacked the so called Waihopai Spy base near Blenheim.

Their actions are those of terrorists. As one radio DJ was heard to ask yesterday, when someone was trying to defend their actions, "what would New Zealanders be saying if these three were of Middle Eastern descent?"

Great question as it does not matter what their ethnic background is, it is their actions. These guys are terrorists & the jury got it very very wrong.

So now the government are looking to change the defence they used & now go after the three of them for damages.
"Terrorism": why the definition must be broad.(FORUM: ON TERRORISM): An article from: World Policy Journal
Their defence again was they believed they were right as their actions would save lives in Iraq(also known as colour of right). What a load of bollocks! It is extremely unlikely that any information gathered from a New Zealand site would have direct impact in Iraq.

In fact the only likely connections would of been myself & others ringing back to our families here whilst we worked in Iraq or Iraqis ringing their relations here when they found out we were Kiwis as happened on occassion.
Terrorism: definition, justification, and applications.(Terrorism. The Philosophical Issues )(Book review): An article from: Social Theory and Practice
Although the US has an unhealthy reliance on electronic intelligence, the best was gained by the age old fashion of what is now known as humanint.

The government could of easily brought in a few of us that had worked security in Iraq to comment on the highly unlikely circumstances of the site here picking up useful information.
Appendix B: definitions.(terrorism): An article from: CONPLAN - U.S. Government Interagency Domestic Terrorism Concept of Operations Plan
By destroying the envelope around one of the antenna's the only lives they really put in danger were those of New Zealanders.

Yet many New Zealanders continue to support the terrorist actions of these three men.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

From Fairyland to lack of reality!

Kia Ora,

The news can be an interesting watch, listen or read.

One article yesterday spoke of a person here in Christchurch been given a slap on the hand for carrying out a Bomb Hoax. So New Zealand remains in Fairyland in regards to these issues. To get the seriousness of this issue across there needs to be prison sentences issued & quite severe prison sentences.

All going well next year New Zealand hosts the Rugby World Cup 2011 & with hopefully the NZ police & NZ Security Industry on a higher alert. What we don't need is people calling in bomb hoax's tying up resources when a real threat might be eventuating.
Hostage Rescue Manual: Tactics of the Counter-Terrorist Professionals-Revised Edition
There has been an increase in bomb hoax's in recent times in New Zealand. The message needs to be sent that this is an unacceptable action. It is that serious that I would suggest a starting point of ten years jail. Resources sent to one of these just might save hundreds of lifes if able to be used elsewhere.

In the meantime in India those associated with some of the games are loosing touch with reality.

After all the concerns over security then the state of the venues people are now calling for security to be relaxed so people can attend events.

It shows that these people are out of touch with reality.

The Commonwealth Games in Delhi are India's chance to showcase to the world what it can do. Though I do have concerns with some of the security preparations I see & has been reported to me, I can't see India relaxing this early in the games.
Negotiating with Terrorists: Strategy, Tactics, and Politics
But it also tells me that those making the comments have not thought it through.

First the cost to the venues from what is been said was always going to favour tourists, not the locals. Those locals who could afford to go were seen giving interviews saying they were going away on holiday during the games period(note to NZ same will happen for Rugby World Cup as it will be mainly tourists who will be able to afford the tickets).

Now comment was hardly anyone showed up to watch Hockey(field hockey) matches India's national game. National game? Well I suppose it could be because what most Indians will be watching or listening to the national religion. Cricket! In particular the test series(with the first concluding last night in a very close match) between India & Australia. No problems with crowds at cricket matches.
Hidden Agenda, Vol. 6 - No Place to Hide, The Strategy and Tactics of Terrorism
If the test series had not been on it is odds on India would of been taking note of the current one day series between NZ & Bangladesh.

Someone didn' think about their planning as nothing compares to cricket in the sub continent.

In fact being a cricket player it is one thing I have found as an icebreaker anywhere in the world when talking to someone with a legacy from the sub continent.
Foreign Terrorist Organizations: History Tactics and Connections
So people are calling for a relaxing in the security in place without actually thinking about the other factors or the reality of the situation. This is what any terrorist maybe just waiting for.

You under estimate your enemy(terrorist) at your own peril!

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

So where are the explosives?

Kia Ora,

Some more coverage of the Commonwealth games in India & again I am concerned about something in pictures we are getting. There is something not quite right with all the security we see.

There was also a warning of a report that some explosives & weapons have been smuggled in already for terrorist attacks.

It shouldn't but that report got me chuckling.

Why chuckling over explosives & weapons been smuggled in?

Well with the concern over the state of some of the venues & the Games village as the pressure goes on I would expect that some of the security would of been relaxed to get the extra workers in.

That is where the fun begins. Have any weapons been smuggled in & left in dead letter boxes for uplift later?
Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Understanding Threats and Responses in the Post 9/11 World (3rd Edition)
Then there is the explosives.

In Iraq road workers were found to be laying IED's in the roads as they paved them. Many only discovered by the wires sticking out at the side of the road.

On at least one occassion an IED was placed in the gap between some blast walls.

Then the workers at at least one facility for making blast walls were reportedly found placing IED's in the blast walls.
Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Understanding the New Security Environment, Readings and Interpretations, Revised & Updated 2004 (Trade Edition)
Then how good are the bomb searches. Close to at least one check point to the Green Zone in Baghdad an IED was placed each night & removed each morning by US troops.

So what has Iraq got to do with the Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India?

Terrorist tactics transfer quickly world wide, especially when they work. Already there have been a lot of similarities in tactics at times in Afghanistan & Iraq. With Al Qaeda established in Pakistan & groups fighting in Kashmir it would not take a lot for that information to be passed onto groups in India.
Debating Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Conflicting Perspectives on Causes, Contexts, and Responses
Or they can just get it off the internet.

So though not really an amusing subject you can just see it happening, especially as the pressure comes on to get the place up to scratch demanded by competing nations.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Lack of Leadership Exposed!

Kia Ora,

Well the blame game has started in India over the state of the Commonwealth Games in the lead up to the Games.

A lot of fingers were pointed at one official, Indian Media have pointed the finger also at the New Zealander who was CEO of games on behalf of Commonwealth Games.

To my way of thinking both of those fingered in particular but right the way down the chain there has been a lack of leadership. As is shown in the programme 'Undercover Boss' those up the top often have no idea or have forgotten what it is like at the bottom.
Leadership 101: What Every Leader Needs to Know
They don't always have to do the work but just get out & see those that are & ensure things are done. Though not like one security operations manager who thought he would visit sites & patrols & when having to help do some work or do something that was out of his league, never came back, but harrassed everyone else. He never learnt a thing.

Or as I found in Iraq, different nationalities have different ideas of leadership & what works. All had their good & bad points, but to motivate people some of the leaders have to get in & do some work themselves.

We had a situation where that arose & on the first day the local workers worked very hard & were great. On the second someone from a different nationality thought all they had to do was yell & scream & nothing much got done. The third day same formula as first was tried but the damage had been done.
The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership: Follow Them and People Will Follow You
Funny thing is all the criticism pointed at India can also be pointed at New Zealand.

The day after the state of the games village was exposed it was revealed similar conditions where found in Auckland eateries.

Within the NZ Security Industry the lack of real leadership is rampant & would be sorely exposed in a real emergency at most big events.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz