The biggest threat is the belief there isn't one!

Kia Ora,

Last week was a long weekend here in New Zealand. It meant there were a lot of events on with even more drunken idiots to deal with.

So that meant Police & security were out in force at many events.

But again it raised the issue of New Zealanders believing there is no threat here from terrorist elements in particular during the Rugby World Cup.

This issue came up again because I was using a torch I acquired in Iraq, which for its size is so powerful compared to any available in New Zealand.

A Police officer approached me about it & we got to discussing the security preparations for the Rugby World Cup.

But yet again I was met with the believe they had that all preparations were great & that there was no real terrorist threat.
25-pack Terrorist Targets
The day after reports came out of how the British are already preparing well above what the British police have at anytime in the past for the Olympics.

Even if New Zealand did that, it does not have the numbers to adequately cover all the games that maybe on in a short period of time. Any terrorist will know this.

Right now it needs to start preparing some private security to assist.
Talking to the Enemy: Faith, Brotherhood, and the (Un)Making of Terrorists
As if to emphasize just how unprepared New Zealand is another incident involving explosives arose.

A farmer dropped off a largish amount of explosives that were if a bad state of repair at the local police station. This resulted in a four hour cordon whilst police waited for the army to arrive then transport it to a safe area for detonation.

Yes as it was unstable moving it did pose some risk, but since the farmer had transported it there, there was a good chance that it could be moved to a safer area early on.
Conversations with Terrorists: Middle East Leaders on Politics, Violence, and Empire
Should a terrorist campaign be launched in New Zealand & in particular during the Rugby World Cup we can not afford to wait four hours for someone to show up. Even now those procedures are far too cumbersome.

Al Qaeda have shown on several occassions they are not above using diversions such as suicide bombers to isolate their main target.

But here in New Zealand we continue to beleive that there is no way that could happen here.

The biggest threat is still the belief there is no threat.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is there likely to be a Terrorist attack at the Commonwealth Games now they are underway?

Kia Ora,

So now the Commonwealth Games are underway is there a likelyhood of a terrorist attack still? Is all that suffocating security still required?

Well in a word. Yes!

In fact as the games wear on if there is going to be an attack it is more likely to occur later in the games.

By looking at how Al Qaeda in particular has carried out some attacks in Iraq & Afghanistan I see the possibility of an armed assault on the bridge leading into the games village. From reports & images on TV there are still concerns about the security set up there. Either during the assault or after then vehicle bombs making their way in along with surviving assaulters to targeted team facilities.
Inside Terrorism
The teams most likely to be hit are Australia, England (as the most identifiable team of 'Britain') for their high profile in Iraq & Afghanistan.

The other is New Zealand.

First for our perceived connection to Iraq & connection to Afghanistan.

Then there has been the issues of late that have highlighted New Zealand in India & not in a good light.
The Mind of the Terrorist: The Psychology of Terrorism from the IRA to al-Qaeda
Initially there was the complaints laid by the NZ chef de mission which highlighted the poor state of the games village. Some of that was quite well received in India as complaints by locals fell on deaf ears(sounds very familiar to what happens here).

That was followed by the issue over the alleged words said by the CEO of the Commonwealth Games who just happens to be a New Zealander that Indians felt were a slight on the people of New Delhi.
Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind
Since then there have been the Paul Henry issues first regarding the Governor General who just happens to be Fijian Indian which has been followed in India with wideapread coverage of him making fun of an Indian government ministers name.

Not a good look & Paul often engages mouth before brain but he does like Hone raise issues that New Zealand need to look at itself & discuss. They both say what they are thinking & many others are but won't speak up to say. It is actually a NZ trait not to say anything but go whispering behind peoples backs. Just maybe things need to be said in a different way.
Islam And Terrorism
But all that has raised the New Zealand profile not in a good way so immediately the team becomes a target.

So why later in the games? Human nature!

The games are 10 days in duration so as they wear on the security teams will naturally lower their awareness. If you wait until after the closing ceremony then everyone will think, well we got that far it is all good, security will sub consciously at least lower their guard, teams or those still there will party. What better time to hit?
Terrorism Today: The Past, The Players, The Future (4th Edition)
I have actually been part of a high profile security team where one of the supervisors actually said when we caught someone inside who shouldn't be, "oh don't worry about it. We have done well for two & a half days." Excuse me?

There is also an issue I have raised previously which a reporter noted in their article on the games.

First the reporter talks about how suffocating the security is but then talks about better too much than too little if it prevents an attack.
Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century (6th Edition)
Their next comment though makes my point. It was the frustration when you are going through check after check when others just waltz on by just over the way.

As pointed out this was happening in Amman, Jordan at the hotel I stayed at. But it also happened in Baghdad.

Sent with other members of my team to gain the latest pass or piece of paper needed to work there(from memory it was the Iraqi firearms licence) we had to enter the same building as the Interim Iraqi Parliament. One of the team suddenly says "look at that!" A bodyguard for an Iraqi Member of Parliament handed the MP his firearm to smuggle in as MP's did not go through a metal detector.

Of course later on three bombs were smuggled in to a cafe used by Iraqi MP's & exploded.
Insurgency and Terrorism: From Revolution to Apocalypse, Second Edition, Revised
Our response was once inside having cleared our weapons, was to 'make safe'(load a magazine back on our weapons but not cock it) as if there were weapons floating around unknown we had to be ready.

So is the threat over? No way. It is actually increasing.

Current issues highlighting New Zealand is in a bad light that makes our team a highly likely target in any attack.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

So where are the explosives?

Kia Ora,

Some more coverage of the Commonwealth games in India & again I am concerned about something in pictures we are getting. There is something not quite right with all the security we see.

There was also a warning of a report that some explosives & weapons have been smuggled in already for terrorist attacks.

It shouldn't but that report got me chuckling.

Why chuckling over explosives & weapons been smuggled in?

Well with the concern over the state of some of the venues & the Games village as the pressure goes on I would expect that some of the security would of been relaxed to get the extra workers in.

That is where the fun begins. Have any weapons been smuggled in & left in dead letter boxes for uplift later?
Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Understanding Threats and Responses in the Post 9/11 World (3rd Edition)
Then there is the explosives.

In Iraq road workers were found to be laying IED's in the roads as they paved them. Many only discovered by the wires sticking out at the side of the road.

On at least one occassion an IED was placed in the gap between some blast walls.

Then the workers at at least one facility for making blast walls were reportedly found placing IED's in the blast walls.
Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Understanding the New Security Environment, Readings and Interpretations, Revised & Updated 2004 (Trade Edition)
Then how good are the bomb searches. Close to at least one check point to the Green Zone in Baghdad an IED was placed each night & removed each morning by US troops.

So what has Iraq got to do with the Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India?

Terrorist tactics transfer quickly world wide, especially when they work. Already there have been a lot of similarities in tactics at times in Afghanistan & Iraq. With Al Qaeda established in Pakistan & groups fighting in Kashmir it would not take a lot for that information to be passed onto groups in India.
Debating Terrorism and Counterterrorism: Conflicting Perspectives on Causes, Contexts, and Responses
Or they can just get it off the internet.

So though not really an amusing subject you can just see it happening, especially as the pressure comes on to get the place up to scratch demanded by competing nations.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

New Zealanders just don't get it!

Kia Ora,

It seems everywhere I have looked today there is another New Zealand reporter or security commentator saying that New Zealanders shouldn't listen to the advice at the Commonwealth Games to hide their national colours.

Why was that advice been given?

Because it was believed Al Qaeda was looking to target countries with troops in Afghanistan.

So are they right?

Well really neither the New Zealanders were right or those offering the security advice but those offering were far closer to the facts.

At least one commentator mentioned the fact that the people of India were threatening to swamp Kiwis with kindness. That is most likely but it doesn't mean a terrorist will embrace them as New Zealanders.

Another said basically Kiwis should wear their colours as not a target.
The History of Terrorism: From Antiquity to al Qaeda
What a load of rot!

First is if you use a New Zealand flag much of the world thinks you are Australian.

Second the likes of Al Qaida are not dumb. They do know who is who in the world. They do have people who read books like that by Sir John Keegan "The Iraq War" which says New Zealand he believes was part of the invasion of Iraq. Whether he is right or wrong it is a common belief in the Arab World.

Thirdly & where both parties are not right is the mindset of a suicide bomber or terrorists. All people are a target including Muslims for the Al Qaeda suicide bomber. Their aim is to achieve their mission which is likely to be take as many with them as possible.
Inside Terrorism
From the information I am receiving from people on the ground, pictures on TV, security is not as good as people say it is. It would be interesting to see the check points as earlier photos of a few years ago showed tourists getting checked whilst life carried on. That does not make a place secure.

Again it is that mindset of New Zealanders. New Zealanders believe they are one of the few countries that is have the ability to move anywhere. That is true to some extend & has been true over the years & why our passports have been so sort after.
Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind
But the world has changed & some people don't care where you are from as long as they make their statement.

New Zealanders just won't get it until it blows up in their faces.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz