Kia Ora,
Whilst news continues to come in in regards to the massive earthquake off the coast of Japan with the following Tsaunami it is the effect on people especially here in Christchurch that is my focus. Unlike the Japanese, New Zealanders are still not used to dealing with reality. Unless you were directly involved in the worst part of the February 22nd earthquake many even within Christchurch still think it is been overplayed.
Here in New Zealand people are still worried about the prediction for a possible very large earthquake around the Christchurch area about the 20th March 2011.
That has been the focus but the actual prediciton for February by the 'Moon man' as Ken Ring is known was for the 'Ring of fire'. The proviso was that if it hit New Zealand then the orientation of the moon means it would hit Canterbury or Marlborough & that is the same for March.
As the Perigee of the Moon approached a quake of about 6.3 happened off Chile in the same area of the previous one that resulted in a Tsaunami & deaths. Of course after Perigee Christchurch got hit by our own destructive 6.3.
Someone mentioned to me the other day that another person who uses similar information to Ken Ring had said that the Christchurch Quakes would trigger a large quake in Japan.
A few days ago a 7.1 earthquake happened off Japan resulting in a 60cm Tsaunami. This was followed by a 5 in China where at least 22 people died. Then this big one hit & whilst Hawaii was readying itself for the Tsaunami it was rocked by a 4.5 & reports of lava geysering up to 50 metres in one of the volcanoes.
Now despite the 'experts' saying there is no connection between each shake I think most people will view them as interconnected. The earthquakes in Japan may take the pressure off in this part of the world for now as the moon coming closer will impact on those areas under most stress or weakest.
As it says the predicitons are of possible earthquakes/sesmic activity. Much of it never felt. Still pays to be ready & just maybe the 'experts' can now start to combine their measurements of pressure. Of course that would be helped by proper mapping of the earth surface to find all the faults. They say it is expensive but like the poor modern building practices(as they are cheaper) in the long run it has proved more expensive in lives & economically.
Of course the 'experts' will say this is all bumkum. But that doesn't stop human emotions & reactions kicking in.
If say over the next two months as predicted for this area at least we get some more substantial earthquakes crime increases along with violence as stress gets to people. At some stage though people really start to embrace religions(end of times) or law & order starts to break down as the rules aren't seen as important with the end of the world idea gets into some peoples heads.
Others are still in denial that there might be any threat. Having seen the power of a large earthquake twice up close I would rather be ready & aware but without fretting about it.
Personally I think it is just a whole lot of cycles (financially & within the earth)coming together at the same time so find it interesting. It also brings opportunities to make the world a better place.
As back on security task tonight in the CBD red zone here in Christchurch expect there could be more trying to enter the area to commit crime. You would have to say that is no surprise that some of the looters caught(those seen) so far in Christchurch appear to be basically people who follow anarchist teachings. It fits right in with the way they think the world should be.
A bit of common sense though would tell them that it is just too dangerous. It is good to see some people at Civil Defence are finally thinking & have cancelled the planned walk through the red zone next Friday. Why? Because it is too dangerous. No s..t Sherlock! Taken them that long to decide that!
Meantime I am still expecting that the 10,000 homes to be not able to be rebuilt is light on the numbers. That is going to impact on people emotionally as well & their reactions will vary. Personally I think it is time to return those eastern suburbs that are badly hit to the farm land I am told they were in the 60's & start building to the west on harder ground. Even I remember much of Bromley was just sand dunes in the 70's where we as kids used to play when visiting friends on Linwood Avenue.
How will all this affect people? Already a lot are nervous. The fact that major earthquakes & Tsaunami's are happening around the 'Ring of fire' will not make people any more comfortable. In fact it is likely to morph into a law & order issue in particular if as predicted a large earthquake hits near Christchurch in the next week or so.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Showing posts with label violence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label violence. Show all posts
Friday, March 11, 2011
Friday, February 11, 2011
Nano Nano; The Great Orkan speaks!
Kia Ora,
The Orkan greeting from the TV series Mork & Mindy might not seem appropriate but I feel it is as it fits the response from the Minister of Earthquake recovery & his out of touch unrealistic responses to the frustrated & angry people of Canterbury.
He definitely is on another planet. From his flippant responses to the angry meeting shown on TV news in Kaiapoi. "We can't just wave a magic wand". No but you can pull your finger out & start getting things done. Australia have a lot sooner & with more imput to not one but two major disasters. Meanwhile authorities here are sitting with finger up rear using any excuse not to do anything.
Then in the 'Press' he is quoted as saying that the government will do nothing for those that were uninsured as it is personal responsibility. Yes it is, but in most cases people are not insured because they can not actually aford it. A governments job is not to give out currency willy nilly as they have here in the past but they are there to be the safety net when all else fails.
Now the person highlighted in the 'Press' is mid 60's so has little in way of job prospects & is on a sickness beneficiary due to "chronic obstructive pulmonary disease & prostrate cancer". Where is the lack of personal responsibility? I would say he has lived his life paid taxes confined by the way the government wants so they can steal his currency & now they just discard him.
He is going to get his mates to help him refurbish his house. But it would probably be illegal or unsafe but what else is he to do? At present he shouldn't even be living in it.
This is the sort of thinking that will led to greater frustration & anger. Hope the government is prepared for the back lash.
As is reported in Kaiapoi & I have pointed out before there is a lot of uncertainty lack of information & any rumour(especially about the Ministers own house) just is taken up as truth like wildfire.
Disaster Recovery
Then there was another Minister saying that businesses that have gone under or about too were poor at business. Funny some real thriving businesses have already gone under due to the slow response & in how customers could not get to them even if they were open.
Politicians really do live in their own little world just delivering for their real masters the banks(whom it is noted have made a great profit this year, though basing it on how the US banks are doing it it is likely to be a book profit only aided by tax refunds).
President Mubarak has gone because like all leaders he has underestimated the power of social media. The current New Zealand government has already lost the Canterbury vote for the poor response unless it pulls finger & gets off the drugs they are using or return to planet earth.
Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning for IT Professionals
Police raided gang properties across the North Island over the last few days to impact on the drug scene. Maybe they need to raid parliament. Because they are on some heavy shit up there.
Even the police raids showed how out of touch the policticians really are. The Police Minister has been quite good in supporting the police but her statement yesterday showed she had no idea what she is talking about.
Basically she claimed that drug raids would result in a drop in crime. Actually they will do the opposite. In particular violent crime will go up as people need more cash to buy their drug of choice. In the Netherlands when I visited a local said they always dread when the drug squad hit outlets as they knew from low crime it would quickly esculate until the drug supply was sufficient enough again to lower the price. Of course if people weren't on drugs to start there would be less crime but that is unrealistic in todays world.
High Availability and Disaster Recovery: Concepts, Design, Implementation
Of course the stress caused by the earthquakes is showing in Canterbury with visits for stress related issues way up particularly in some areas but funding for that has stopped. The stress hasn't so here we go again, more crime, more violence & more use of illegal drugs. More problems for police & security.
The Government are in cloud cuckoo land!
Nano Nano!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
The Orkan greeting from the TV series Mork & Mindy might not seem appropriate but I feel it is as it fits the response from the Minister of Earthquake recovery & his out of touch unrealistic responses to the frustrated & angry people of Canterbury.
He definitely is on another planet. From his flippant responses to the angry meeting shown on TV news in Kaiapoi. "We can't just wave a magic wand". No but you can pull your finger out & start getting things done. Australia have a lot sooner & with more imput to not one but two major disasters. Meanwhile authorities here are sitting with finger up rear using any excuse not to do anything.
Then in the 'Press' he is quoted as saying that the government will do nothing for those that were uninsured as it is personal responsibility. Yes it is, but in most cases people are not insured because they can not actually aford it. A governments job is not to give out currency willy nilly as they have here in the past but they are there to be the safety net when all else fails.
Now the person highlighted in the 'Press' is mid 60's so has little in way of job prospects & is on a sickness beneficiary due to "chronic obstructive pulmonary disease & prostrate cancer". Where is the lack of personal responsibility? I would say he has lived his life paid taxes confined by the way the government wants so they can steal his currency & now they just discard him.
He is going to get his mates to help him refurbish his house. But it would probably be illegal or unsafe but what else is he to do? At present he shouldn't even be living in it.
This is the sort of thinking that will led to greater frustration & anger. Hope the government is prepared for the back lash.
As is reported in Kaiapoi & I have pointed out before there is a lot of uncertainty lack of information & any rumour(especially about the Ministers own house) just is taken up as truth like wildfire.
Disaster Recovery
Then there was another Minister saying that businesses that have gone under or about too were poor at business. Funny some real thriving businesses have already gone under due to the slow response & in how customers could not get to them even if they were open.
Politicians really do live in their own little world just delivering for their real masters the banks(whom it is noted have made a great profit this year, though basing it on how the US banks are doing it it is likely to be a book profit only aided by tax refunds).
President Mubarak has gone because like all leaders he has underestimated the power of social media. The current New Zealand government has already lost the Canterbury vote for the poor response unless it pulls finger & gets off the drugs they are using or return to planet earth.
Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning for IT Professionals
Police raided gang properties across the North Island over the last few days to impact on the drug scene. Maybe they need to raid parliament. Because they are on some heavy shit up there.
Even the police raids showed how out of touch the policticians really are. The Police Minister has been quite good in supporting the police but her statement yesterday showed she had no idea what she is talking about.
Basically she claimed that drug raids would result in a drop in crime. Actually they will do the opposite. In particular violent crime will go up as people need more cash to buy their drug of choice. In the Netherlands when I visited a local said they always dread when the drug squad hit outlets as they knew from low crime it would quickly esculate until the drug supply was sufficient enough again to lower the price. Of course if people weren't on drugs to start there would be less crime but that is unrealistic in todays world.
High Availability and Disaster Recovery: Concepts, Design, Implementation
Of course the stress caused by the earthquakes is showing in Canterbury with visits for stress related issues way up particularly in some areas but funding for that has stopped. The stress hasn't so here we go again, more crime, more violence & more use of illegal drugs. More problems for police & security.
The Government are in cloud cuckoo land!
Nano Nano!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
If we are so great how come Child abuse & Poverty are a problem?
Kia Ora,
So where am I talking about?
The US where poverty is far greater than the government would like people to think?
Some third world country where child abuse is a cultural tradition?
Well the last one is sort of right, we are third world. Yep right here in New Zealand according to a UN report.
Child abuse is as the UN put it 'staggering', but we already knew that we just don't actually do a lot about it. It is the worst in Maori communities or appears to be from the amount of deaths from child abuse we see each year.
But do the Maori in positions of influence do anything? Not really they have become just another part of the bureaucracy & bureaucrats get nothing done.
Funny thing is people have taken steps to change it including Maori. If those steps are successful then it is either taken over by the bureaucrats ensuring its failure or is stopped especially if there is funding.
We can't have anything succeeding!
Don't dare speak up about it as Michael Laws did though he might of got it wrong in presentation & at times seems to be coming from a racist point of view you would have to believe his heart was in the right place on this issue watching the interview.
So we will just leave the system to create more criminals prone to violence.
Child Abuse and Neglect: Attachment, Development and Intervention
The other 'staggering' point in the UN report was the amount of poverty in New Zealand. Like crime people just do not want to see it or pretend it does not exist in New Zealand.
One thing about the military in particular the army you got to see not the best parts of the world as you travelled around including in our own country. So I was always well aware that there were many living on subsistance areas.
But it was leaving the army & working in security in what is supposed to be & always looked a well off city like Christchurch that I really got to see the poverty that we try to gloss over.
Again many turn to crime just to live. If the system turns against you as it does then many cannot handle it & find themselves living in poverty & resorting to crime.
The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time
There is one comment quoted from the report I don't agree with & that is the comment about how New Zealand has taken backward steps in childrens rights in particular in regards to lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 14 to 12. it should be down to 10 at least.
This shows how out of touch people writing reports can be. Whilst the first two subjects are actually there this part is way out of touch.
It is a fact that these days kids know at what age they can be charged or think they do & it is not common for them to confront even police officers with the words "you can't touch me".
Children are not sweet & innocent at 10 any more. Some have even been threatening to kill at 4 in the last year. Whilst a 4 year old might not understand fully the implications todays 10 year old does.
When Helping Hurts: Alleviating Poverty Without Hurting the Poor. . .and Yourself
I think first of all you need to deal with the top two issues before you can ever look at raising the age of responsibility.
Just like the issues of Treaty of Waitangi settlements the majority in New Zealand think that if they ignore child abuse & poverty they either don't exist or will go away.
Afraid that won't happen. People need to start getting off their butt's & start doing things. If they fail at least they tried.
Lets create jobs, lets create a safer environment for people to live in but lets just do something.
Out of Poverty: What Works When Traditional Approaches Fail (BK Currents (Paperback))
Leaving it to the politicians will never achieve anything.
Once thought about politics until I found out about the golden rule. "He who has the gold makes the rules" not the politicians.
But many who have the gold abuse the privilege. By doing that they create conditions for more to comit crime & therefore pass more control ot those with the gold.
It is not been rich that is the problem it is what you do with it!
How you make it work for you & your community!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
So where am I talking about?
The US where poverty is far greater than the government would like people to think?
Some third world country where child abuse is a cultural tradition?
Well the last one is sort of right, we are third world. Yep right here in New Zealand according to a UN report.
Child abuse is as the UN put it 'staggering', but we already knew that we just don't actually do a lot about it. It is the worst in Maori communities or appears to be from the amount of deaths from child abuse we see each year.
But do the Maori in positions of influence do anything? Not really they have become just another part of the bureaucracy & bureaucrats get nothing done.
Funny thing is people have taken steps to change it including Maori. If those steps are successful then it is either taken over by the bureaucrats ensuring its failure or is stopped especially if there is funding.
We can't have anything succeeding!
Don't dare speak up about it as Michael Laws did though he might of got it wrong in presentation & at times seems to be coming from a racist point of view you would have to believe his heart was in the right place on this issue watching the interview.
So we will just leave the system to create more criminals prone to violence.
Child Abuse and Neglect: Attachment, Development and Intervention
The other 'staggering' point in the UN report was the amount of poverty in New Zealand. Like crime people just do not want to see it or pretend it does not exist in New Zealand.
One thing about the military in particular the army you got to see not the best parts of the world as you travelled around including in our own country. So I was always well aware that there were many living on subsistance areas.
But it was leaving the army & working in security in what is supposed to be & always looked a well off city like Christchurch that I really got to see the poverty that we try to gloss over.
Again many turn to crime just to live. If the system turns against you as it does then many cannot handle it & find themselves living in poverty & resorting to crime.
The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time
There is one comment quoted from the report I don't agree with & that is the comment about how New Zealand has taken backward steps in childrens rights in particular in regards to lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 14 to 12. it should be down to 10 at least.
This shows how out of touch people writing reports can be. Whilst the first two subjects are actually there this part is way out of touch.
It is a fact that these days kids know at what age they can be charged or think they do & it is not common for them to confront even police officers with the words "you can't touch me".
Children are not sweet & innocent at 10 any more. Some have even been threatening to kill at 4 in the last year. Whilst a 4 year old might not understand fully the implications todays 10 year old does.
When Helping Hurts: Alleviating Poverty Without Hurting the Poor. . .and Yourself
I think first of all you need to deal with the top two issues before you can ever look at raising the age of responsibility.
Just like the issues of Treaty of Waitangi settlements the majority in New Zealand think that if they ignore child abuse & poverty they either don't exist or will go away.
Afraid that won't happen. People need to start getting off their butt's & start doing things. If they fail at least they tried.
Lets create jobs, lets create a safer environment for people to live in but lets just do something.
Out of Poverty: What Works When Traditional Approaches Fail (BK Currents (Paperback))
Leaving it to the politicians will never achieve anything.
Once thought about politics until I found out about the golden rule. "He who has the gold makes the rules" not the politicians.
But many who have the gold abuse the privilege. By doing that they create conditions for more to comit crime & therefore pass more control ot those with the gold.
It is not been rich that is the problem it is what you do with it!
How you make it work for you & your community!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Monday, February 7, 2011
Just how well do we know the community we live in?
Kia Ora,
Been a busy couple of days but back to it again.
Had a call from a mate who said they sighted one of my adverts for the 0900 Suspicious service in the local 'Coffee News' free community news letter.They had pointed it out to their boss.
The boss though showed how little New Zealanders actually either know their community or just don't want to know.
"If we see something suspicious then we call the police. Why would we pay $15 plus GST to get someone around?"
Fair enough question but it doesn't fit with the facts.
A recent government study here in New Zealand showed at least 66% of crime is not reported. But as government statistics are the ones you should least trust you then go back a few years to a media outlet reporting that up to 95% of crime & 96% of violent crime are unreported in New Zealand.
I don't go on statistics, but on what I see, feel & hear around my community. Even where I live now I can still stun the people who live here & say there is no crime by relating incidents right in our complex. They just have no idea or no wish to see it.
Net Crimes & Misdemeanors: Outmaneuvering the Spammers, Swindlers and Stalkers Who Are Targeting You Online
So I know that crime is well up in our communities, but the people around me will say it is not happening or not in their area even after they have told me about a recent cirme a few minutes before.
As was related after a recent armed robbery within 24 hours staff at a site were seen to be letting people in with a full faced motorbike helmet been worn. The person telling me said "wouldn't happen overseas. two steps in & the place would be surrounded by police but not in New Zealand. It is like the incident within the last 24 hours never happened & it won't happen in New Zealand. Yeah right. It just did!"
Then there is the issue of calling the police. Until people have too they never know what the reality it like. Whilst the officers on the ground might understand why you have rung & especially the exprienced officers know it will impact on crime most of those taking the calls have no idea these days. They have a little check list & they stick to it.
Low Crimes and Misdemeanors: Confessions of a Tulsa Boy
Also as has been pointed out in the past the new police officer is now judged on arrests & tickets so that judgement goes up the chain of command. Not much likelyhood of an arrest then less likely to get a patrol.
Then there are those in the community that are aware & have been asking for a service like this. Without investment it just takes time to build it to where it can cover all those areas that would benefit most from such a service.
Most crime is actually committed in low income areas. Most burglaries are committed during the day not night as most people presume.
Overseas everybody is aware of crime & take appropriate precautions. Again this is where the comment about the likes of Christchurch been more dangerous than Baghdad come from. Because New Zealanders are in denial,our cities & towns are so spread out nice looking, everybody assumes it is virtually crime free. So it is a big shock when it isn't. Up until now there has been no reason, often there isn't & it is all so random.
Widger's Quotations of Dumas' Celebrated Crimes
Only place I know that could be said to be near crime free(even then there is more going on that people realize) & that is Singapore but there any crime is dealt with harshly & swiftly.
Just today on the morning news there was a comparison between the US 'Superbowl' with three arrests around the game, one for alcohol, & the sevens rugby in Wellington where 103 were arrested for mainly alcohol related crime. It was said the Wellington crowd was well behaved. That didn't include the numbers for those evicted for drunkeness.
We are in denial & we have real issues in our communities but nothing will happen until people start taking notice of what is actually going on around them demanding action or taking action.
High Crimes & Misdemeanors: The Impeachment Process (Crime, Justice and Punishment)
That is where the service offered comes in as to start the process you need people committed to putting their neck out there. Just the simple act of showing up recording suspicious activity will have an impact on the crime in a persons area. It also means in particular in the early stages any reaction will be at those prepared for it, not the general public.
In the long run though it will make communities safer. The Suspicious activity leds to the small crime which leds to the larger more violent crime.
First people just have to take notice of what is really going on.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Been a busy couple of days but back to it again.
Had a call from a mate who said they sighted one of my adverts for the 0900 Suspicious service in the local 'Coffee News' free community news letter.They had pointed it out to their boss.
The boss though showed how little New Zealanders actually either know their community or just don't want to know.
"If we see something suspicious then we call the police. Why would we pay $15 plus GST to get someone around?"
Fair enough question but it doesn't fit with the facts.
A recent government study here in New Zealand showed at least 66% of crime is not reported. But as government statistics are the ones you should least trust you then go back a few years to a media outlet reporting that up to 95% of crime & 96% of violent crime are unreported in New Zealand.
I don't go on statistics, but on what I see, feel & hear around my community. Even where I live now I can still stun the people who live here & say there is no crime by relating incidents right in our complex. They just have no idea or no wish to see it.
Net Crimes & Misdemeanors: Outmaneuvering the Spammers, Swindlers and Stalkers Who Are Targeting You Online
So I know that crime is well up in our communities, but the people around me will say it is not happening or not in their area even after they have told me about a recent cirme a few minutes before.
As was related after a recent armed robbery within 24 hours staff at a site were seen to be letting people in with a full faced motorbike helmet been worn. The person telling me said "wouldn't happen overseas. two steps in & the place would be surrounded by police but not in New Zealand. It is like the incident within the last 24 hours never happened & it won't happen in New Zealand. Yeah right. It just did!"
Then there is the issue of calling the police. Until people have too they never know what the reality it like. Whilst the officers on the ground might understand why you have rung & especially the exprienced officers know it will impact on crime most of those taking the calls have no idea these days. They have a little check list & they stick to it.
Low Crimes and Misdemeanors: Confessions of a Tulsa Boy
Also as has been pointed out in the past the new police officer is now judged on arrests & tickets so that judgement goes up the chain of command. Not much likelyhood of an arrest then less likely to get a patrol.
Then there are those in the community that are aware & have been asking for a service like this. Without investment it just takes time to build it to where it can cover all those areas that would benefit most from such a service.
Most crime is actually committed in low income areas. Most burglaries are committed during the day not night as most people presume.
Overseas everybody is aware of crime & take appropriate precautions. Again this is where the comment about the likes of Christchurch been more dangerous than Baghdad come from. Because New Zealanders are in denial,our cities & towns are so spread out nice looking, everybody assumes it is virtually crime free. So it is a big shock when it isn't. Up until now there has been no reason, often there isn't & it is all so random.
Widger's Quotations of Dumas' Celebrated Crimes
Only place I know that could be said to be near crime free(even then there is more going on that people realize) & that is Singapore but there any crime is dealt with harshly & swiftly.
Just today on the morning news there was a comparison between the US 'Superbowl' with three arrests around the game, one for alcohol, & the sevens rugby in Wellington where 103 were arrested for mainly alcohol related crime. It was said the Wellington crowd was well behaved. That didn't include the numbers for those evicted for drunkeness.
We are in denial & we have real issues in our communities but nothing will happen until people start taking notice of what is actually going on around them demanding action or taking action.
High Crimes & Misdemeanors: The Impeachment Process (Crime, Justice and Punishment)
That is where the service offered comes in as to start the process you need people committed to putting their neck out there. Just the simple act of showing up recording suspicious activity will have an impact on the crime in a persons area. It also means in particular in the early stages any reaction will be at those prepared for it, not the general public.
In the long run though it will make communities safer. The Suspicious activity leds to the small crime which leds to the larger more violent crime.
First people just have to take notice of what is really going on.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Friday, January 21, 2011
How the Bailouts are making things worse!
Kia Ora,
The Bailouts are going to save the world from Financial Crisis! Yeah Right they are actually making things worse.
For those that don't know this is how it works.
The big banks(those too big to fail) trade in the shadow banking world with debt such as CDO's & the derivatives market. Things start to go wrong so the government goes to the central bank & gets them to create some currency from nothing to stimulate the economy. Governments no longer create or print the currency themselves. They let the private banks that are the central banks do that on their behalf then pay them interest(your taxes)for doing it.
Now this new currency goes to buy the debt of the major banks therefore monetizing that debt, so although it is called quantitive easing, by monetizing the debt is just like printing currency.
But since the major banks actually make up the cartel that runs the central banks they were always going to get bailouts.
So that extra currency causes the fiat currency(a currency backed by nothing but a promise & debt) people have in their wallets to loose value. But since the banks are not passing the 'stimulus' on to create businesses & jobs, therefore kick starting the economy, people are loosing out.
There is less work around, prices are rising & the only people benefitting are the banks with big fat bonus payments.
So where does security fit in with this?
Well we only have to look at what is happening in the world & in particular Tunisia as an indicator of what is going to happen.
Food riots, riots over austerity measures, rises in crime in particular violence, extreme politics & xenophobic(dislike of new comers or foreigners)behaviour are evident around the world at present.
But back to Tunisia & look at a statement out here in New Zealand in the last few days. In the last quarter of the year New Zealand had a jump in inflation which has been blamed on the rise in GST(Goods & Services Tax). That is more like smoke & mirrors.
Why?
Because the Federal Reserve in the US in particular is carrying out quantitive easing to buy debt to save the major banks. This is causing inflation in food prices(despite what the manipulated CPI's tell us) across the world.
The president of Tunisia is said to have tried to take measures to stem the rising prices including cutting taxes(take note all those that want to cut GST from food, fuel etc it doesn't make much difference in the end) but the prices just kept rising.
Rich Dad's Advisors: Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver: Protect Your Financial Future
It apparently forced people to have to live out on the street to survive, one of whom was doing business with an illegal black market food stall. The trigger event apparently was the slapping of his face by a female police officer. More of this has been made than the reason he was there in the first place.
So right now the military & the police are trying to get on top of things in Tunisia so a new government can be installed & changes made.
What those carrying out these policies of quantitive easing forget is though on their budget food maybe a very minute thing in many countries including the US it can make up to 70% or more of the weekly budget. If that keeps increasing then people start to take drastic action such as theft, robbery, maybe even a coup or two.
Rich Dad's Prophecy: Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash in History is Still Coming...and How You Can Prepare Yourself and Profit From It!
So whilst trying to make it look like they are saving the world, they are actually dooming it to collapse of the financial system. They could save the financial system if they took the action the people of Iceland forced their government too.
But they won't as it will mean admiting they failed & loss of power. The lessons of history tell us what is likely to happen but again people like to believe what their governments tell them!
Might be a requirement for good security though if you can afford it!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
The Bailouts are going to save the world from Financial Crisis! Yeah Right they are actually making things worse.
For those that don't know this is how it works.
The big banks(those too big to fail) trade in the shadow banking world with debt such as CDO's & the derivatives market. Things start to go wrong so the government goes to the central bank & gets them to create some currency from nothing to stimulate the economy. Governments no longer create or print the currency themselves. They let the private banks that are the central banks do that on their behalf then pay them interest(your taxes)for doing it.
Now this new currency goes to buy the debt of the major banks therefore monetizing that debt, so although it is called quantitive easing, by monetizing the debt is just like printing currency.
But since the major banks actually make up the cartel that runs the central banks they were always going to get bailouts.
So that extra currency causes the fiat currency(a currency backed by nothing but a promise & debt) people have in their wallets to loose value. But since the banks are not passing the 'stimulus' on to create businesses & jobs, therefore kick starting the economy, people are loosing out.
There is less work around, prices are rising & the only people benefitting are the banks with big fat bonus payments.
So where does security fit in with this?
Well we only have to look at what is happening in the world & in particular Tunisia as an indicator of what is going to happen.
Food riots, riots over austerity measures, rises in crime in particular violence, extreme politics & xenophobic(dislike of new comers or foreigners)behaviour are evident around the world at present.
But back to Tunisia & look at a statement out here in New Zealand in the last few days. In the last quarter of the year New Zealand had a jump in inflation which has been blamed on the rise in GST(Goods & Services Tax). That is more like smoke & mirrors.
Why?
Because the Federal Reserve in the US in particular is carrying out quantitive easing to buy debt to save the major banks. This is causing inflation in food prices(despite what the manipulated CPI's tell us) across the world.
The president of Tunisia is said to have tried to take measures to stem the rising prices including cutting taxes(take note all those that want to cut GST from food, fuel etc it doesn't make much difference in the end) but the prices just kept rising.
Rich Dad's Advisors: Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver: Protect Your Financial Future
It apparently forced people to have to live out on the street to survive, one of whom was doing business with an illegal black market food stall. The trigger event apparently was the slapping of his face by a female police officer. More of this has been made than the reason he was there in the first place.
So right now the military & the police are trying to get on top of things in Tunisia so a new government can be installed & changes made.
What those carrying out these policies of quantitive easing forget is though on their budget food maybe a very minute thing in many countries including the US it can make up to 70% or more of the weekly budget. If that keeps increasing then people start to take drastic action such as theft, robbery, maybe even a coup or two.
Rich Dad's Prophecy: Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash in History is Still Coming...and How You Can Prepare Yourself and Profit From It!
So whilst trying to make it look like they are saving the world, they are actually dooming it to collapse of the financial system. They could save the financial system if they took the action the people of Iceland forced their government too.
But they won't as it will mean admiting they failed & loss of power. The lessons of history tell us what is likely to happen but again people like to believe what their governments tell them!
Might be a requirement for good security though if you can afford it!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Monday, January 17, 2011
Governments cause the problems!
Kia Ora,
If you have been reading my posts you will know I follow some financial commentators. Probably the most interesting is the Australian one Daily Reckoning(DR) because it has multiple contributors who often, even on the same email, contradict each other.
For example recently on gold some are saying it is in a pull back but will shortly go higher, others say the pull back will be big (gold under US$1,000, silver US$15 is what one commentator has said though not on DR) before going much higher. So you have to do your homework to make up your own mind as to what is going to happen & how to benefit.
In the last few days though there have been interesting commentary across all commentators I follow.
First many are starting to say what I have in that economic woes will lead & in fact have now led to the otherthrow of governments, increased violence & crime. The current conditions are those prior to the French revolution & Hitler coming to power. This time though it is a world wide issue.
As governments try to find ways of fixing things they actually make it worse.
Now the DR has commented on Austrian Economics which it describes as having the philosophy "Governments cause, rather than solve problems".
Take Tunisia as an example. By the US government listening to & letting the Federal reserve 'fix' things through quantitive easing it is causing inflation. The Federal Reserve says it isn't because it is not monetising debt. Well actually it is as it is using this to buy debt(government bonds, CDO's etc)it monetises the debt.
In other words debt that has been created out of nothing is purchased by currency created out of nothing meaning there is more currency around lowering the value of the US dollar in this case causing prices to rise(inflation).
An Introduction to Austrian Economics
Since the US dollar is the international reserve currency in which trade is conducted it meant despite the best efforts of the President of Tunisia the price of food kept rising resulting in it triggering his overthrow.
This accounts for what China has been up to lately. First it has been quietly getting rid of its US debt that it has bought. Next it has said it is looking to buy 5000 tonnes of gold(though how they are going to achieve that unless another country such as the US puts gold privately on the market as it does to keep the price down.
More recently China has started to enter into negoiations(successfully) with India then Russia & lately directly with some US businesses. This has the very real potential of collapsing the US Dollar much earlier than was expected.
Then to give it some breathing room I belive China is now buying European debt. This keeps the Yuan down in value meaning it can export more but also prolongs the slide to the collapse of the world financial system whilst China prepares & can buffer the worst effects from its people.
Already in the US things are much worse than are been generally acknowledged. There was talk of a clip on a news programme of a person with two masters degrees who had a good job but now can only get employment sweeping floors.
It is people like this that will struggle as it is predicted the middle class is about to be wiped out.
Those at the very bottom will get by as they always have & they know how to survive. It is those that have had these good jobs who are really going to struggle not just with balancing the budget but the mental side. It is here that you will not only see the increase in crime but violent crime as the stress gets to them.
This will give the governments the excuse to introduce a greater transfer of power which will make things worse. Tunisia is just the tip of the iceberg. There are likely to be many governments overthrown in the coming years, rise in crime, violence & even civil wars.
The Theory of Money and Credit
But any actions taken by a government will worsen the situation especially whilst the central banks, which are privately owned, are the ones 'printing' the currency not the government.
Now Austrian Economics is of the point of view the less government is better. Or as the DR quotes from Jefferson(whom I take to be US President Jefferson)"a little government is a necesary evil".
But there are issues with this.
First the world has implimented social benefits of which people are reluctant to let go as demonstrated by the riots across Europe at Austerity measures.
Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle and Other Essays
Then you have a country like New Zealand where the government needs to play a greater role since we just don't have the population to maintain good economic competition.
In fact the privatization of some government departments or requirement for others to act in a commercial manner(SOE's) have been an abject failure as few if any have had the promised benefits.
Everything has become more inefficient & other issue is change in 'culture' has meant government departments are no better. Any real competition is quickly snuffed out.
Economic Science and the Austrian Method
What is worse is governments are advised by economists who are not even really aware of the Austrian Method. DR asked recently if anyone knew of a teritiary institution who taught or even mentioned the Austrian Method. The replies they got pointed to the fact that only one in Australia did so.
So how can these guys advise when there is another whole way of looking at economics that is never even brought into the equation. That is why they can't see the destruction of the financial system that is coming.
At present governments around the world are looking to cut billions from their budgets. Best way they can do that is make government more efficient. I twould cut billions overnight. Instead their answers tend to be increase government employees to deal with the larger numbers unemployed. So increase the most unproductive part of the economy.
Governments just increase the problems. Right now in New Zealand we have the poor response to the earthquake in particular in Christchurch, the poor response to Pike River mine disaster & rising food prices due to inflation(despite what the manipulated CPI says) whilst earnings drop, all possible triggers for actions such as crime, violence & riots.
An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 Vol. Set)
What the government need to do is take the risk of supporting ideas that will increase employment even if they don't tick all the little boxes. Do that & it decreases crime. Not all will work but they only need a percentage too.
It was what Sir Robert Muldoon was looking to do in the late 70's early 80's with DFC(Development Finance Corporation) the last time the situation was similar to now.
This time it is much worse. Thing is Academics & bureaucrats didn't understand it last time & unless they are kept out of it they would not understand it again. Real progress is only achieved by those who do not stick to the little boxes.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
If you have been reading my posts you will know I follow some financial commentators. Probably the most interesting is the Australian one Daily Reckoning(DR) because it has multiple contributors who often, even on the same email, contradict each other.
For example recently on gold some are saying it is in a pull back but will shortly go higher, others say the pull back will be big (gold under US$1,000, silver US$15 is what one commentator has said though not on DR) before going much higher. So you have to do your homework to make up your own mind as to what is going to happen & how to benefit.
In the last few days though there have been interesting commentary across all commentators I follow.
First many are starting to say what I have in that economic woes will lead & in fact have now led to the otherthrow of governments, increased violence & crime. The current conditions are those prior to the French revolution & Hitler coming to power. This time though it is a world wide issue.
As governments try to find ways of fixing things they actually make it worse.
Now the DR has commented on Austrian Economics which it describes as having the philosophy "Governments cause, rather than solve problems".
Take Tunisia as an example. By the US government listening to & letting the Federal reserve 'fix' things through quantitive easing it is causing inflation. The Federal Reserve says it isn't because it is not monetising debt. Well actually it is as it is using this to buy debt(government bonds, CDO's etc)it monetises the debt.
In other words debt that has been created out of nothing is purchased by currency created out of nothing meaning there is more currency around lowering the value of the US dollar in this case causing prices to rise(inflation).
An Introduction to Austrian Economics
Since the US dollar is the international reserve currency in which trade is conducted it meant despite the best efforts of the President of Tunisia the price of food kept rising resulting in it triggering his overthrow.
This accounts for what China has been up to lately. First it has been quietly getting rid of its US debt that it has bought. Next it has said it is looking to buy 5000 tonnes of gold(though how they are going to achieve that unless another country such as the US puts gold privately on the market as it does to keep the price down.
More recently China has started to enter into negoiations(successfully) with India then Russia & lately directly with some US businesses. This has the very real potential of collapsing the US Dollar much earlier than was expected.
Then to give it some breathing room I belive China is now buying European debt. This keeps the Yuan down in value meaning it can export more but also prolongs the slide to the collapse of the world financial system whilst China prepares & can buffer the worst effects from its people.
Already in the US things are much worse than are been generally acknowledged. There was talk of a clip on a news programme of a person with two masters degrees who had a good job but now can only get employment sweeping floors.
It is people like this that will struggle as it is predicted the middle class is about to be wiped out.
Those at the very bottom will get by as they always have & they know how to survive. It is those that have had these good jobs who are really going to struggle not just with balancing the budget but the mental side. It is here that you will not only see the increase in crime but violent crime as the stress gets to them.
This will give the governments the excuse to introduce a greater transfer of power which will make things worse. Tunisia is just the tip of the iceberg. There are likely to be many governments overthrown in the coming years, rise in crime, violence & even civil wars.
The Theory of Money and Credit
But any actions taken by a government will worsen the situation especially whilst the central banks, which are privately owned, are the ones 'printing' the currency not the government.
Now Austrian Economics is of the point of view the less government is better. Or as the DR quotes from Jefferson(whom I take to be US President Jefferson)"a little government is a necesary evil".
But there are issues with this.
First the world has implimented social benefits of which people are reluctant to let go as demonstrated by the riots across Europe at Austerity measures.
Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle and Other Essays
Then you have a country like New Zealand where the government needs to play a greater role since we just don't have the population to maintain good economic competition.
In fact the privatization of some government departments or requirement for others to act in a commercial manner(SOE's) have been an abject failure as few if any have had the promised benefits.
Everything has become more inefficient & other issue is change in 'culture' has meant government departments are no better. Any real competition is quickly snuffed out.
Economic Science and the Austrian Method
What is worse is governments are advised by economists who are not even really aware of the Austrian Method. DR asked recently if anyone knew of a teritiary institution who taught or even mentioned the Austrian Method. The replies they got pointed to the fact that only one in Australia did so.
So how can these guys advise when there is another whole way of looking at economics that is never even brought into the equation. That is why they can't see the destruction of the financial system that is coming.
At present governments around the world are looking to cut billions from their budgets. Best way they can do that is make government more efficient. I twould cut billions overnight. Instead their answers tend to be increase government employees to deal with the larger numbers unemployed. So increase the most unproductive part of the economy.
Governments just increase the problems. Right now in New Zealand we have the poor response to the earthquake in particular in Christchurch, the poor response to Pike River mine disaster & rising food prices due to inflation(despite what the manipulated CPI says) whilst earnings drop, all possible triggers for actions such as crime, violence & riots.
An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought (2 Vol. Set)
What the government need to do is take the risk of supporting ideas that will increase employment even if they don't tick all the little boxes. Do that & it decreases crime. Not all will work but they only need a percentage too.
It was what Sir Robert Muldoon was looking to do in the late 70's early 80's with DFC(Development Finance Corporation) the last time the situation was similar to now.
This time it is much worse. Thing is Academics & bureaucrats didn't understand it last time & unless they are kept out of it they would not understand it again. Real progress is only achieved by those who do not stick to the little boxes.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Gun Control; Is it effective?
Kia Ora,
In yesterday's 'Press' there was an editorial on gun control & the shooting in the US in particular of the Congresswoman.
To me it showed the writer of the editorial had no idea what they are talking about. There was comment about how strange it is that in the US having access to firearms made them feel safer. Well actually when I visited the US I felt safer than I do in Christchurch, yet our police are unarmed as are our security & to gain a firearm legally you have to jump through hoops.
This 'unarmed' state of the New Zealand police & securtiy in particular I know put many Americans off coming here as they viewed that it would be too dangerous a country. I know because they told me so when I visited there a few years ago.
As I have said often I find Christchurch in particular more dangerous than when I worked security in Iraq because as my South African dentist(from Jo'burg) said there is no reason for the crime or violence & it is so random. Also the fact I no longer have a weapon just makes you feel unsafe. You get a lot less arguments when you are armed & a lot less people wanting to take you on.
But is gun control effective?
Well really no! The only people it penalizes are those who stick by the rules. Most firearms used here in New Zealand are illegal or stolen.
As the reporter from the Sunday-Star Times showed in his undercover piece sometime back. It is real easy to buy illegal firearms in New Zealand & the firearms safety of many of those selling is appalling.
The Politics of Gun Control, 4th Edition
The editorial then goes on to say that it is due to the toxic political environment in the US & we do not have an unhealthy gun culture.
I think this shows their lack of understanding on what is going on in the world. The Congresswoman is not the first political person killed or attempted to be killed of late & most of it is to do with the financial crisis as people come under extreme stress. At least one person killed has directly been atributed to the austerity measures they agreed to carryout.
This sort of incident will only increase as the worlds situation worsens. As was pointed out in the previous post it is the climate now where extrmists end up with political power & this is how the likes of the Nazi party got to power in Germany. We haven't seen an equivalent of the 'night of the long knives' yet.
Gun Control on Trial: Inside the Supreme Court Battle Over the Second Amendment
As to a gun culture. New Zealand has a pretty significant gun culture & I grew up seeing firearms a lot. The major difference is population. New Zealand has only just reached 4 million people. The US is about 260 million therefore you are going to have a lot more incidents. Per Capita though I would be very careful saying we don't have a gun culture the same as the US & amount of incidents. On the surface we don't seem to be as carefree with firearms, but again as that reporter exposed it is pretty dodgy. In fact during security tasks you often hear firearms been discharged but what do you do when you have no details to pass to the police? Everyone else just convinces themselves its fireworks.
We have had enough mass murders(Aramoana, Stanley Graham, Bain faimly, to name a few) or potential mass murders(Napier springs to mind).
People in New Zealand also seem to stick to the myth that the NZ Police have always been an unarmed force, only resorting to firearms when the requirement arose.
As the NZ Police yes that is true, but before that they were known as the Armed Constabulary. That change took place in the early 1900's so it has been a while, but there is still a history of been armed.
The NZ Security Industry does even better as it was armed until 1974 in a low key manner for certain tasks. It is even more important now that it should be armed again when you look at it from a risk assessment & health & safety point of view.
The Seven Myths of Gun Control: Reclaiming the Truth About Guns, Crime, and the Second Amendment
But the gun is not the issue. It is just the weapon of choice of that person.
In the last two months high profile attacks on police here in NZ have involved knives or machete's. In South Auckland you would say the weapon of choice has always been a machete.
Then you have the likes of Timothy McVeigh who used what is commonly refered to as ampho to destroy a building. The biggest terrorist attack on US soil prior to 9/11(Pearl Harbour was an act of war even if the Japanese got their timings wrong about when to deliver the message)pissed off with politicians. In fact 9/11 should tell people that an attack by an upset armed individual, though tragic, is only small beer to what could be carried out.
Fact is to stop terrorist attacks people need to be armed. You can't, as seems to be the woollyheaded thinking at times here in New Zealand, say "Stop! Excuse me sir are you a suicide bomber?"
The Gun Control Debate : You Decide (Contemporary Issues)
I would call Gun Control the Claytons(a non alcoholic drink you used to get here in NZ whose advert went "the drink you are having when you are not having a drink" It was awful & consensus was only way to drink it was with Whiskey)solution. The solution you have when you really don't have a solution.
Gun Control does not work as there seems to be an increasing amount of firearms out there found on drug raids, used in armed robberies & in gang confrontations. It just happens to be weapon of choice for some.
Firearms education is what is really needed. As was pointed out so often when in the army "Its not the weapon that kills, but the nut behind it!"
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
In yesterday's 'Press' there was an editorial on gun control & the shooting in the US in particular of the Congresswoman.
To me it showed the writer of the editorial had no idea what they are talking about. There was comment about how strange it is that in the US having access to firearms made them feel safer. Well actually when I visited the US I felt safer than I do in Christchurch, yet our police are unarmed as are our security & to gain a firearm legally you have to jump through hoops.
This 'unarmed' state of the New Zealand police & securtiy in particular I know put many Americans off coming here as they viewed that it would be too dangerous a country. I know because they told me so when I visited there a few years ago.
As I have said often I find Christchurch in particular more dangerous than when I worked security in Iraq because as my South African dentist(from Jo'burg) said there is no reason for the crime or violence & it is so random. Also the fact I no longer have a weapon just makes you feel unsafe. You get a lot less arguments when you are armed & a lot less people wanting to take you on.
But is gun control effective?
Well really no! The only people it penalizes are those who stick by the rules. Most firearms used here in New Zealand are illegal or stolen.
As the reporter from the Sunday-Star Times showed in his undercover piece sometime back. It is real easy to buy illegal firearms in New Zealand & the firearms safety of many of those selling is appalling.
The Politics of Gun Control, 4th Edition
The editorial then goes on to say that it is due to the toxic political environment in the US & we do not have an unhealthy gun culture.
I think this shows their lack of understanding on what is going on in the world. The Congresswoman is not the first political person killed or attempted to be killed of late & most of it is to do with the financial crisis as people come under extreme stress. At least one person killed has directly been atributed to the austerity measures they agreed to carryout.
This sort of incident will only increase as the worlds situation worsens. As was pointed out in the previous post it is the climate now where extrmists end up with political power & this is how the likes of the Nazi party got to power in Germany. We haven't seen an equivalent of the 'night of the long knives' yet.
Gun Control on Trial: Inside the Supreme Court Battle Over the Second Amendment
As to a gun culture. New Zealand has a pretty significant gun culture & I grew up seeing firearms a lot. The major difference is population. New Zealand has only just reached 4 million people. The US is about 260 million therefore you are going to have a lot more incidents. Per Capita though I would be very careful saying we don't have a gun culture the same as the US & amount of incidents. On the surface we don't seem to be as carefree with firearms, but again as that reporter exposed it is pretty dodgy. In fact during security tasks you often hear firearms been discharged but what do you do when you have no details to pass to the police? Everyone else just convinces themselves its fireworks.
We have had enough mass murders(Aramoana, Stanley Graham, Bain faimly, to name a few) or potential mass murders(Napier springs to mind).
People in New Zealand also seem to stick to the myth that the NZ Police have always been an unarmed force, only resorting to firearms when the requirement arose.
As the NZ Police yes that is true, but before that they were known as the Armed Constabulary. That change took place in the early 1900's so it has been a while, but there is still a history of been armed.
The NZ Security Industry does even better as it was armed until 1974 in a low key manner for certain tasks. It is even more important now that it should be armed again when you look at it from a risk assessment & health & safety point of view.
The Seven Myths of Gun Control: Reclaiming the Truth About Guns, Crime, and the Second Amendment
But the gun is not the issue. It is just the weapon of choice of that person.
In the last two months high profile attacks on police here in NZ have involved knives or machete's. In South Auckland you would say the weapon of choice has always been a machete.
Then you have the likes of Timothy McVeigh who used what is commonly refered to as ampho to destroy a building. The biggest terrorist attack on US soil prior to 9/11(Pearl Harbour was an act of war even if the Japanese got their timings wrong about when to deliver the message)pissed off with politicians. In fact 9/11 should tell people that an attack by an upset armed individual, though tragic, is only small beer to what could be carried out.
Fact is to stop terrorist attacks people need to be armed. You can't, as seems to be the woollyheaded thinking at times here in New Zealand, say "Stop! Excuse me sir are you a suicide bomber?"
The Gun Control Debate : You Decide (Contemporary Issues)
I would call Gun Control the Claytons(a non alcoholic drink you used to get here in NZ whose advert went "the drink you are having when you are not having a drink" It was awful & consensus was only way to drink it was with Whiskey)solution. The solution you have when you really don't have a solution.
Gun Control does not work as there seems to be an increasing amount of firearms out there found on drug raids, used in armed robberies & in gang confrontations. It just happens to be weapon of choice for some.
Firearms education is what is really needed. As was pointed out so often when in the army "Its not the weapon that kills, but the nut behind it!"
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Huge difference in approach!
Kia Ora,
In my last post I finished with a comment about the latest rumour. EQC is short of cash as it was never prepared for something as big as the Canterbury earthquake.
Rumours like that get traction especially when the response has been so poor. Even more so when, as I have been doing, going back over my database of clippings concerned with security & risk assessment I find warnings about overdue earthquakes & volcanic eruptions for New Zealand.
But then you look at the response of New Zealand compared to that of Australia with their large floods at present.
Where as New Zealand couldn't make up its mind whether to deploy the military to assist after the earthquake because it would send the wrong message, the Australians have employed their military early & are looking to have them in the recovery phase. In fact leading the way.
I know one person from civil defence was worried about the military taking over & as I pointed out to them in the situation we had it was more likely to be aid to the civil power.
It took the Mayor of Christchurch to ask the Prime Minister live on TV for the military to be deployed.
2010 Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation - Federal Guidance for a Nuclear Bomb Attack on an American City, Effects, Fallout, Shelter, Medical Care, Decontamination
But even if the military did take over it tends to be much more organized(organized chaos as we always referred to it) that in any current major situation I have been involved in. In fact in one we advised the locals how to run their operations better so they didn't waste resources as they were at the time.
Their set up would require the advice from people with that specific knowledge & the likes of civil defence could learn a lot from them as the system is similar, but the military use it all the time. At present I find many in civil defence have this rose tinted view that they will save everyone all the time.
Despite claims to the opposite parts of civil defence were a shambles in my dealings with them during the earthquake.
Disaster on Green Ramp : The Army's Response
A big part has been the difference in attitude already evident.
Where as EQC are taking the attitude that a quick check & what was deemed to be condition of area in general was true for every property in that area.
Then take the attitude of the Military officer in charge of recovery operations in Australia his comment was "what I have learned in responding to disasters is the requirements of every community is different" & had he been in charge of the earthquake recovery here, I dare say he would of extended that to every household or building.
Preparing for the Humanitarian Consequences of Possible Military Action Against Iraq: Response to the Committee's 4th Report (House of Commons Papers)
So it goes back to that rumour. With the Australian approach there will be less likelyhood of them taking hold. Where as the New Zealand approach is actually feeding them.
This again is causing frustration & growing anger.
Crime & violence are already up due to the continuing financial crisis without continually adding to it by poor responses.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
In my last post I finished with a comment about the latest rumour. EQC is short of cash as it was never prepared for something as big as the Canterbury earthquake.
Rumours like that get traction especially when the response has been so poor. Even more so when, as I have been doing, going back over my database of clippings concerned with security & risk assessment I find warnings about overdue earthquakes & volcanic eruptions for New Zealand.
But then you look at the response of New Zealand compared to that of Australia with their large floods at present.
Where as New Zealand couldn't make up its mind whether to deploy the military to assist after the earthquake because it would send the wrong message, the Australians have employed their military early & are looking to have them in the recovery phase. In fact leading the way.
I know one person from civil defence was worried about the military taking over & as I pointed out to them in the situation we had it was more likely to be aid to the civil power.
It took the Mayor of Christchurch to ask the Prime Minister live on TV for the military to be deployed.
2010 Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation - Federal Guidance for a Nuclear Bomb Attack on an American City, Effects, Fallout, Shelter, Medical Care, Decontamination
But even if the military did take over it tends to be much more organized(organized chaos as we always referred to it) that in any current major situation I have been involved in. In fact in one we advised the locals how to run their operations better so they didn't waste resources as they were at the time.
Their set up would require the advice from people with that specific knowledge & the likes of civil defence could learn a lot from them as the system is similar, but the military use it all the time. At present I find many in civil defence have this rose tinted view that they will save everyone all the time.
Despite claims to the opposite parts of civil defence were a shambles in my dealings with them during the earthquake.
Disaster on Green Ramp : The Army's Response
A big part has been the difference in attitude already evident.
Where as EQC are taking the attitude that a quick check & what was deemed to be condition of area in general was true for every property in that area.
Then take the attitude of the Military officer in charge of recovery operations in Australia his comment was "what I have learned in responding to disasters is the requirements of every community is different" & had he been in charge of the earthquake recovery here, I dare say he would of extended that to every household or building.
Preparing for the Humanitarian Consequences of Possible Military Action Against Iraq: Response to the Committee's 4th Report (House of Commons Papers)
So it goes back to that rumour. With the Australian approach there will be less likelyhood of them taking hold. Where as the New Zealand approach is actually feeding them.
This again is causing frustration & growing anger.
Crime & violence are already up due to the continuing financial crisis without continually adding to it by poor responses.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Heads must roll!
Kia Ora,
Well again as if by magic a situation has occurred that reinforces my comments.
Yesterday friends of mine were visited by EQC(Earth Quake Commission) Assessors. First up the building assessor needs to be either given serious retraining or sacked!
For that matter the Minister & CEO should both resign as of Friday.
My friends experience & that of their neighbours shows it is all about not delivering for any excuse & trying to bully people.
Now yesterday The local newspaper the "Press" had a very good editorial pointing out as I said in my blog things need to be done quickly but properly & with empathy.
Well that is not what a builders assessor did yesterday & whats more they have shot themselves in the foot.
Since these guys as we know have to visit six properties a day I would hate to think of the devastation left behind.
My friends neighbour was left nearly in tears & told they had no real damage despite the area been badly hit with liquifaction during the initial quake.
Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning for IT Professionals
What this idiot didn't realize was at my friends place the woman is a qualified & experienced cabinet maker. He probably just thought "Just a woman I can steam roll her".
She does admit been a bit taken back by the dismissive way in which he put everything down to wear & tear.
When I asked her "you did tell them you are a qualified cabinet maker?" "No, was too taken back by attitude, but I should of asked how qualified they were!"
I have known this woman for 17 years & in every house she has been in I have heard "well I was going to go out to there, but I just needed to fix this skirting or paint this wall or hang this wall paper or ...".
This is not the mechanic with the worst car.
Disaster Recovery
As it was I know she pulled apart their patio because it was munted(destroyed) & couldn't be bothered waiting, but what they could they left to show the damage. I think the wiser head of her husband prevailed there or she would of fixed half the house by now.
So to be told it was wear & tear is an outright lie.
It is like the corrupt body corporate representative here telling me that a new crack in the wall was pre existing. It wasn't but what he didn't take into account was the coal trains that run past here & so the coal dust makes things looked aged real quick.
High Availability and Disaster Recovery: Concepts, Design, Implementation
Or EQC telling another friend that his property has not suffered land damage even though no one has ever been to that property & the little shake yesterday been within 1.5km of his property.
But the questioning of the assessors qualifications is interesting as it has been suggested to me that they are looking for assessors so I should apply. I have been a builders labourer & can swing a hammer but in no way am I qualified except for the fact I would have empathy & can see if something is damaged.
The Disaster Recovery Handbook: A Step-by-Step Plan to Ensure Business Continuity and Protect Vital Operations, Facilities, and Assets
Yes some people are ripping off the system or trying too. But most are not. Many are just too upset to even think about that.
So what qualifications did this person have to really comment on the sagging roof with Duct tape over the holes to stop the rain, the liquifaction obvious by the hills & valleys in the ocncrete floor, near 100 cracks in the walls when they stopped counting new ones & the bricks falling off the outside? That is not to count the damage nearly everyone has of seperated skirting boards, cracks around doors, windows etc.
Or the drive way which is at different levels but already dealt with by their insurance company.
Disaster Recovery Planning: Preparing for the Unthinkable (3rd Edition)
That is not to mention that at the time the inspection started at my friends place that wee shake occurred which they said they never felt as probably too busy been abused(because that is what it is) by the assessor, but their children have come home shaken.
This sort of poor performance with a lack of empathy is what increases the frustration & anger resulting in riots, increased domestic violence & crime overall.
What is also been forgot is shortly after the earthquake on September the 4th 2010 there were on two occassions in the "Press" structural engineers quoted & then the Mayor of Christchurch all saying the same thing.
"The building code is there to save lives not buildings."
Emergency Food Storage & Survival Handbook: Everything You Need to Know to Keep Your Family Safe in a Crisis
Now I have been trying to remember where I had heard something similar to that before. Then I realized it was in relation to body armour.
People have asked could they borrow some of my sets of body armour or buy them for security work but they would have to test them first. As is pointed out to them once they have stopped a knife or a bullet that is it. Throw them away basically.
So to me what they are saying is the building code has done its job but effectively every single property effected by the quakes need to be checked over as essentially most should be rebuilt. It would be why the Christchurch City council has ordered all commercial properties to be restrengthened up to 67% of original strength if they have damage. The costs associated has meant many been pulled down.. Because if they don't the council will be liable.
It will be also why several structural engineers have privately been passing on the information for people to register a claim as not the whole truth was been passed on to the public.
Financial Reckoning Day Fallout: Surviving Today's Global Depression
That EQC don't have a clue what they are doing is shown by the fact that until recently there was no complaint form available to their website. It is the height of arrogance to think there will be no complaints.
Or were they relying on those like the elderly couple last night showing the damage but saying well we just have to wait as there was another big aftershock. Though at end of interview on TV One they did express some frustration in the system.
It is that frustration that is growing & turning to anger. Most of the books above are probably where they got their ideas on recovery from, but it is more than that. It is the empathy needed. With the Global Depression on & getting worse by the day it just makes things worse.
The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble: The Coming Deficit Debacle and How to Invest Now: How Deficit Economics Will Change our Global Financial Climate
Here is my solution to the earthquake recovery. Minister & CEO(EQC) to resign by this Friday 7th January 2011, army to take over management of recovery lead by the Royal New Zealand Engineers. Under their guidance in conjunction with the private sector & using the unemployed every single building in the affected area checked & any damage rectified.
The military do this sort of thing as part of their contribution to helping our Pacific neighbours. It is the sort of thing the US Army corp of Engineers does as in post Katrina.
At the moment it is a shambles, poorly organized with little empathy & highly corrupt.
In the current environment the likes of us in security & the police will have to deal with ever increasing issues over & above the normal crime.
EQC & the government can not rely on the fact Kiwis don't complain. They do, just not upfront as some nationalities, but it all means increasing frustration & tension.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Well again as if by magic a situation has occurred that reinforces my comments.
Yesterday friends of mine were visited by EQC(Earth Quake Commission) Assessors. First up the building assessor needs to be either given serious retraining or sacked!
For that matter the Minister & CEO should both resign as of Friday.
My friends experience & that of their neighbours shows it is all about not delivering for any excuse & trying to bully people.
Now yesterday The local newspaper the "Press" had a very good editorial pointing out as I said in my blog things need to be done quickly but properly & with empathy.
Well that is not what a builders assessor did yesterday & whats more they have shot themselves in the foot.
Since these guys as we know have to visit six properties a day I would hate to think of the devastation left behind.
My friends neighbour was left nearly in tears & told they had no real damage despite the area been badly hit with liquifaction during the initial quake.
Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning for IT Professionals
What this idiot didn't realize was at my friends place the woman is a qualified & experienced cabinet maker. He probably just thought "Just a woman I can steam roll her".
She does admit been a bit taken back by the dismissive way in which he put everything down to wear & tear.
When I asked her "you did tell them you are a qualified cabinet maker?" "No, was too taken back by attitude, but I should of asked how qualified they were!"
I have known this woman for 17 years & in every house she has been in I have heard "well I was going to go out to there, but I just needed to fix this skirting or paint this wall or hang this wall paper or ...".
This is not the mechanic with the worst car.
Disaster Recovery
As it was I know she pulled apart their patio because it was munted(destroyed) & couldn't be bothered waiting, but what they could they left to show the damage. I think the wiser head of her husband prevailed there or she would of fixed half the house by now.
So to be told it was wear & tear is an outright lie.
It is like the corrupt body corporate representative here telling me that a new crack in the wall was pre existing. It wasn't but what he didn't take into account was the coal trains that run past here & so the coal dust makes things looked aged real quick.
High Availability and Disaster Recovery: Concepts, Design, Implementation
Or EQC telling another friend that his property has not suffered land damage even though no one has ever been to that property & the little shake yesterday been within 1.5km of his property.
But the questioning of the assessors qualifications is interesting as it has been suggested to me that they are looking for assessors so I should apply. I have been a builders labourer & can swing a hammer but in no way am I qualified except for the fact I would have empathy & can see if something is damaged.
The Disaster Recovery Handbook: A Step-by-Step Plan to Ensure Business Continuity and Protect Vital Operations, Facilities, and Assets
Yes some people are ripping off the system or trying too. But most are not. Many are just too upset to even think about that.
So what qualifications did this person have to really comment on the sagging roof with Duct tape over the holes to stop the rain, the liquifaction obvious by the hills & valleys in the ocncrete floor, near 100 cracks in the walls when they stopped counting new ones & the bricks falling off the outside? That is not to count the damage nearly everyone has of seperated skirting boards, cracks around doors, windows etc.
Or the drive way which is at different levels but already dealt with by their insurance company.
Disaster Recovery Planning: Preparing for the Unthinkable (3rd Edition)
That is not to mention that at the time the inspection started at my friends place that wee shake occurred which they said they never felt as probably too busy been abused(because that is what it is) by the assessor, but their children have come home shaken.
This sort of poor performance with a lack of empathy is what increases the frustration & anger resulting in riots, increased domestic violence & crime overall.
What is also been forgot is shortly after the earthquake on September the 4th 2010 there were on two occassions in the "Press" structural engineers quoted & then the Mayor of Christchurch all saying the same thing.
"The building code is there to save lives not buildings."
Emergency Food Storage & Survival Handbook: Everything You Need to Know to Keep Your Family Safe in a Crisis
Now I have been trying to remember where I had heard something similar to that before. Then I realized it was in relation to body armour.
People have asked could they borrow some of my sets of body armour or buy them for security work but they would have to test them first. As is pointed out to them once they have stopped a knife or a bullet that is it. Throw them away basically.
So to me what they are saying is the building code has done its job but effectively every single property effected by the quakes need to be checked over as essentially most should be rebuilt. It would be why the Christchurch City council has ordered all commercial properties to be restrengthened up to 67% of original strength if they have damage. The costs associated has meant many been pulled down.. Because if they don't the council will be liable.
It will be also why several structural engineers have privately been passing on the information for people to register a claim as not the whole truth was been passed on to the public.
Financial Reckoning Day Fallout: Surviving Today's Global Depression
That EQC don't have a clue what they are doing is shown by the fact that until recently there was no complaint form available to their website. It is the height of arrogance to think there will be no complaints.
Or were they relying on those like the elderly couple last night showing the damage but saying well we just have to wait as there was another big aftershock. Though at end of interview on TV One they did express some frustration in the system.
It is that frustration that is growing & turning to anger. Most of the books above are probably where they got their ideas on recovery from, but it is more than that. It is the empathy needed. With the Global Depression on & getting worse by the day it just makes things worse.
The Ten Trillion Dollar Gamble: The Coming Deficit Debacle and How to Invest Now: How Deficit Economics Will Change our Global Financial Climate
Here is my solution to the earthquake recovery. Minister & CEO(EQC) to resign by this Friday 7th January 2011, army to take over management of recovery lead by the Royal New Zealand Engineers. Under their guidance in conjunction with the private sector & using the unemployed every single building in the affected area checked & any damage rectified.
The military do this sort of thing as part of their contribution to helping our Pacific neighbours. It is the sort of thing the US Army corp of Engineers does as in post Katrina.
At the moment it is a shambles, poorly organized with little empathy & highly corrupt.
In the current environment the likes of us in security & the police will have to deal with ever increasing issues over & above the normal crime.
EQC & the government can not rely on the fact Kiwis don't complain. They do, just not upfront as some nationalities, but it all means increasing frustration & tension.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Habits & their Consequences!
Kia Ora,
To continue from the last post lets look at habits & how you can work out what people are going to do or the consequences they may have.
Well first when dealing with crime you know that during a period like now there are gong to be a lot of people out looking for opportunities like the cyclist I saw last week.
Now talking to a retired police officer I know we were both of the opinion that like it used to be get a police patrol in the area. If they were looking as suspected then just that presence would be enough to make them think twice.
But now the police habit has changed & suspicious activity is often not passed on to those on the street & therefore it all becomes reactive, not proactive. Police from our combined sources are now been judged on tickets & arrests, where as in the past a good cop might have no arrests at all, but keeps things under control.
Then on New Years day we had an example of a bad habit that has developed.
I could hear a boy racer trying to do burn outs or doghnuts at intersection nearby & it is a ocmmon occurence. But suddenly hear brakes, then more brakes then boy racer vehicle travelling in short jerks then they come past & stops on our very dangerous corner. Behind it is what looked like a Hummer with a trailer, the driver of the boy racer gets out so the Hummer drives around at which point the boy racer lashes out at the Hummer, jumps back in his vehicle & chases the Hummer. Police are called & again it is like pulling teeth to get the message through but the Hummer must of called police because as we are speaking a police car can be seen heading towards the direction they had taken with all the bells & whistles.
So what is the bad habit here that has developed?
Well there are two sayings "the only crime is getting caught" & "Do the crime do the time." But not today.
I can deduce from the noise & what I saw having both seen this before & being in a similar situations what has happened.
Recent threats feed community fears.(Crime)(Reasons for two local incidents last month remain unclear, but some details emerge): An article from: The Register-Guard (Eugene, OR)
What I would say has happened is the boy racer has decided to do a doghnut, but part way through the Hummer has come along & not stopped as the boy racer thought he would. Likely they didn't have time too. So there has nearly been an accident, but the boy racer who is blatently in the wrong has shown the increasing bad habit that has emerged.
We get it all the time in Security & I would say it is why police are getting attacked more & why I was attacked a few months ago.
It is the habit that young people in particular believe even though they are the ones breaking the law, you, the person stopping or curtailing their illegal activity, are the one in the wrong. They then believe it is their right to use violence to sort it out, but it is never one on one as another new bad habit is big groups onto one.
Crimes of the Whigs: Or, a Radical's Reasons for Supporting the Tory Party at the Next General Election
Then there is the very bad habit people have of not wanting to look at possible problems so not preparing. So to force people to do it we carryout Risk assessements.
But New Zealand does not do that. It risk manages without proper risk assessment. So as we say here it is half pie ka pai. Or half a job she'll be right.
For example the New Years gathering in the Square here in Christchurch. Both I & the retired police officer just shook our heads. We knew shortly after the wee shake in September that aftershocks are likely to carry on for months if not years. Not to mention it could be, as history shows happens in NZ, part of a group of big quakes triggered by one .
But within weeks we were getting told there would not be another for at least 50 years if not 500 by some 'experts'. That is not what the evidence says & the fact the Alpine fault is over due for several big ruptures. Just today I received an email from family on the West Coast saying local pilots are reporting a widening of the Alpine Fault. That could be good it could be bad.
Disaster Preparedness: A memoir
But the New Years event should of been moved to the Hagley Park before the end of September. The aim is not to stop an event but make it safer.
The comment by some idiot official was that safest place from falling buildings was middle of square.
But what about the Human factor?
Your telling everyone that middle is safest place but you have three reactions if there is a quake. One a large number try to get to middle, fighting starts & people are trampled underneath, others freeze & many others just run again people get trampled. This all without even a building falling.
Handbook to Practical Disaster Preparedness for the Family
The bad habit in New Zealand is we forget everything & say it won't happen, it never has even though the week before the exact same thing happened i.e. the Boxing day 4.9 quake which sent some people running & screaming from malls. Now put an estimated 12,000 people in that situation.
Even when you prepare you can't control the human factor.
For example whilst in Baghdad there was a religious festival on & so the security forces put plans in place including no vehicles on the road. As a large group of people were on a bridge in Baghdad moving to a Mosque word spread that there were suicide bombers in amongst them.
Now I was at our villa since there was no vehicle movement some distance away. Suddenly I started hearing screaming & voices, but it was so far off I just thought we may have another large protest coming our way. Passed the information on.
Then shortly after we find out that nearly a thousand people are dead as with people on edge all it needed was one person to light the fuse. Most were trampled or drowned from jumping off the bridge. The Security forces didn't stand a chance in controlling them(although they apparently tried including firing in the air) & neither would our crowd control security(especially at current low standards) when a crowd of that size starts to run.
How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times
New Zealand needs to get out of this bad habit of not doing proper risk assessments & I challenge anyone involved to prove to me that they carried out one for the New Years celebration or have done so for the Rugby World Cup.
Because they haven't!
You only have to look at the Square. Confined space, nervy population, large aftershocks recently.
Or Hagley park wide open spaces, yes a former swamp so possible liquifaction & some trees that could fall over & whats more probably more people would of attended. Also in a large open space people will be less likely to run & if they do less chance of a stampede.
Habits can have consequences. Some good but some extremely bad.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
To continue from the last post lets look at habits & how you can work out what people are going to do or the consequences they may have.
Well first when dealing with crime you know that during a period like now there are gong to be a lot of people out looking for opportunities like the cyclist I saw last week.
Now talking to a retired police officer I know we were both of the opinion that like it used to be get a police patrol in the area. If they were looking as suspected then just that presence would be enough to make them think twice.
But now the police habit has changed & suspicious activity is often not passed on to those on the street & therefore it all becomes reactive, not proactive. Police from our combined sources are now been judged on tickets & arrests, where as in the past a good cop might have no arrests at all, but keeps things under control.
Then on New Years day we had an example of a bad habit that has developed.
I could hear a boy racer trying to do burn outs or doghnuts at intersection nearby & it is a ocmmon occurence. But suddenly hear brakes, then more brakes then boy racer vehicle travelling in short jerks then they come past & stops on our very dangerous corner. Behind it is what looked like a Hummer with a trailer, the driver of the boy racer gets out so the Hummer drives around at which point the boy racer lashes out at the Hummer, jumps back in his vehicle & chases the Hummer. Police are called & again it is like pulling teeth to get the message through but the Hummer must of called police because as we are speaking a police car can be seen heading towards the direction they had taken with all the bells & whistles.
So what is the bad habit here that has developed?
Well there are two sayings "the only crime is getting caught" & "Do the crime do the time." But not today.
I can deduce from the noise & what I saw having both seen this before & being in a similar situations what has happened.
Recent threats feed community fears.(Crime)(Reasons for two local incidents last month remain unclear, but some details emerge): An article from: The Register-Guard (Eugene, OR)
What I would say has happened is the boy racer has decided to do a doghnut, but part way through the Hummer has come along & not stopped as the boy racer thought he would. Likely they didn't have time too. So there has nearly been an accident, but the boy racer who is blatently in the wrong has shown the increasing bad habit that has emerged.
We get it all the time in Security & I would say it is why police are getting attacked more & why I was attacked a few months ago.
It is the habit that young people in particular believe even though they are the ones breaking the law, you, the person stopping or curtailing their illegal activity, are the one in the wrong. They then believe it is their right to use violence to sort it out, but it is never one on one as another new bad habit is big groups onto one.
Crimes of the Whigs: Or, a Radical's Reasons for Supporting the Tory Party at the Next General Election
Then there is the very bad habit people have of not wanting to look at possible problems so not preparing. So to force people to do it we carryout Risk assessements.
But New Zealand does not do that. It risk manages without proper risk assessment. So as we say here it is half pie ka pai. Or half a job she'll be right.
For example the New Years gathering in the Square here in Christchurch. Both I & the retired police officer just shook our heads. We knew shortly after the wee shake in September that aftershocks are likely to carry on for months if not years. Not to mention it could be, as history shows happens in NZ, part of a group of big quakes triggered by one .
But within weeks we were getting told there would not be another for at least 50 years if not 500 by some 'experts'. That is not what the evidence says & the fact the Alpine fault is over due for several big ruptures. Just today I received an email from family on the West Coast saying local pilots are reporting a widening of the Alpine Fault. That could be good it could be bad.
Disaster Preparedness: A memoir
But the New Years event should of been moved to the Hagley Park before the end of September. The aim is not to stop an event but make it safer.
The comment by some idiot official was that safest place from falling buildings was middle of square.
But what about the Human factor?
Your telling everyone that middle is safest place but you have three reactions if there is a quake. One a large number try to get to middle, fighting starts & people are trampled underneath, others freeze & many others just run again people get trampled. This all without even a building falling.
Handbook to Practical Disaster Preparedness for the Family
The bad habit in New Zealand is we forget everything & say it won't happen, it never has even though the week before the exact same thing happened i.e. the Boxing day 4.9 quake which sent some people running & screaming from malls. Now put an estimated 12,000 people in that situation.
Even when you prepare you can't control the human factor.
For example whilst in Baghdad there was a religious festival on & so the security forces put plans in place including no vehicles on the road. As a large group of people were on a bridge in Baghdad moving to a Mosque word spread that there were suicide bombers in amongst them.
Now I was at our villa since there was no vehicle movement some distance away. Suddenly I started hearing screaming & voices, but it was so far off I just thought we may have another large protest coming our way. Passed the information on.
Then shortly after we find out that nearly a thousand people are dead as with people on edge all it needed was one person to light the fuse. Most were trampled or drowned from jumping off the bridge. The Security forces didn't stand a chance in controlling them(although they apparently tried including firing in the air) & neither would our crowd control security(especially at current low standards) when a crowd of that size starts to run.
How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times
New Zealand needs to get out of this bad habit of not doing proper risk assessments & I challenge anyone involved to prove to me that they carried out one for the New Years celebration or have done so for the Rugby World Cup.
Because they haven't!
You only have to look at the Square. Confined space, nervy population, large aftershocks recently.
Or Hagley park wide open spaces, yes a former swamp so possible liquifaction & some trees that could fall over & whats more probably more people would of attended. Also in a large open space people will be less likely to run & if they do less chance of a stampede.
Habits can have consequences. Some good but some extremely bad.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Friday, December 17, 2010
Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics!
Kia Ora,
A well known statement which when I looked it up on Wikipedia shows that no one knows for certain where it came from.
It was popularized by Mark Twain who attributted it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli whom it appears never said it. It has more recently been attributed to Sir Charles Wentwood but with no certainty.
It is the statistics that concerns us most today.
But before we go there further on in the wikipedia entry on the above quote was another which I quite liked.
"There are three types of unreliable witnesses, a liar, a damned liar, & an expert." Robert Giffen 1892.
Now in a recent post I wrote of the only real experts in counter terrorism would be memebers of the SAS/former SAS or a former terrorist. The difference been is that none of them would claim to be experts, but would have the experience to back it up.
It is those that claim the expert tag that you have to watch. We have seen that a lot lately with so called experts all contradiciting each other & any debate or opinion offered always countered by; "what do you know? They are listening to the experts."
Statistics, 4th Edition
The reason for the quote today though is a government statistic has been released on crime. The statistic to be least trusted is a government one.
Now several years ago a New Zealand media outlet quoted figures of 95% of crime & 96% of violent crime is not reported in New Zealand. No one knows where they got those figures from but what we do know is a lot of crime is not reported.
Now people take some note when you say most crime is not reported but they really take note when you say 95% is not reported even though where the figures come from no one knows.
Statistics in Plain English, Third Edition
This new government statistic says that around 66% of crime is not reported but what crime there is happens only in 33% of the population.
Some of the results of the survey of 8000 people needs to be questioned though.
Like reasons for not reporting crime. They don't think police will show, well we already knew that one but when they say people didn't think it was a crime you have to ask how did it get in the survey then?
What do we know then?
Most crime actually happens in the poor neighbourhoods & many then do not report because they are anti/don't trust the police, don't like to be seen as a dobbing in their mates, just don't want to know or are scared of possible action been taken against them or their family.
Principles of Statistics
One comment from the survey shows it is all academically based as opposed to facts.
Many people mentioned they felt safe in their area.
One of the most common things you hear when a murder or violence occurs is "Can't believe it would happen around here as it is such a quiet street."
It is amazing how many people these days who have no idea what actually happens in their street let alone neighbourhood.
Someone was heard to quote that remark here in Christchurch recently after a murder.
"It is such a quiet street & area nothing happens here." Yet from the vicinity of the street where the murder was there had been about five murders from memory within a kilometre, some even closer in last few years. It is regarded as a high crime area.
In fact thought there had been a murder in that street mentioned.
Statistics for Dummies
The statistics are on the right track but I don't think reflect reality. It is a lot worse that people like to think it is & right now getting worse due to the worsening financial crisis.
The worsening financial crisis has being said to be one of the reasons behind a recent hostage situation & death(the hostage taker) in the US.
But again in something like this survey you really have to take time to talk to people in areas not just ask the questions on a form.
What you hear is how concerned people really are about how safe it is.
Well right up until you say "yes it is getting dangerous out there" then the first thing you hear "yes but not around here." Even though they have just said the opposite a minute ago.
As I have alluded to before a mate was saying "there is not much crime out there I never see it(Taxi driving)." Told them to "open their eyes" & with that spotted two males carrying out a burglary in broad daylight.
Cartoon Guide to Statistics
So though they can give us an idea of what is going on, Statistics are not always that reliable especially government ones.
Gut instinct always is more accurate & people need to open their eyes, not avoid seeing what is going on.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
A well known statement which when I looked it up on Wikipedia shows that no one knows for certain where it came from.
It was popularized by Mark Twain who attributted it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli whom it appears never said it. It has more recently been attributed to Sir Charles Wentwood but with no certainty.
It is the statistics that concerns us most today.
But before we go there further on in the wikipedia entry on the above quote was another which I quite liked.
"There are three types of unreliable witnesses, a liar, a damned liar, & an expert." Robert Giffen 1892.
Now in a recent post I wrote of the only real experts in counter terrorism would be memebers of the SAS/former SAS or a former terrorist. The difference been is that none of them would claim to be experts, but would have the experience to back it up.
It is those that claim the expert tag that you have to watch. We have seen that a lot lately with so called experts all contradiciting each other & any debate or opinion offered always countered by; "what do you know? They are listening to the experts."
Statistics, 4th Edition
The reason for the quote today though is a government statistic has been released on crime. The statistic to be least trusted is a government one.
Now several years ago a New Zealand media outlet quoted figures of 95% of crime & 96% of violent crime is not reported in New Zealand. No one knows where they got those figures from but what we do know is a lot of crime is not reported.
Now people take some note when you say most crime is not reported but they really take note when you say 95% is not reported even though where the figures come from no one knows.
Statistics in Plain English, Third Edition
This new government statistic says that around 66% of crime is not reported but what crime there is happens only in 33% of the population.
Some of the results of the survey of 8000 people needs to be questioned though.
Like reasons for not reporting crime. They don't think police will show, well we already knew that one but when they say people didn't think it was a crime you have to ask how did it get in the survey then?
What do we know then?
Most crime actually happens in the poor neighbourhoods & many then do not report because they are anti/don't trust the police, don't like to be seen as a dobbing in their mates, just don't want to know or are scared of possible action been taken against them or their family.
Principles of Statistics
One comment from the survey shows it is all academically based as opposed to facts.
Many people mentioned they felt safe in their area.
One of the most common things you hear when a murder or violence occurs is "Can't believe it would happen around here as it is such a quiet street."
It is amazing how many people these days who have no idea what actually happens in their street let alone neighbourhood.
Someone was heard to quote that remark here in Christchurch recently after a murder.
"It is such a quiet street & area nothing happens here." Yet from the vicinity of the street where the murder was there had been about five murders from memory within a kilometre, some even closer in last few years. It is regarded as a high crime area.
In fact thought there had been a murder in that street mentioned.
Statistics for Dummies
The statistics are on the right track but I don't think reflect reality. It is a lot worse that people like to think it is & right now getting worse due to the worsening financial crisis.
The worsening financial crisis has being said to be one of the reasons behind a recent hostage situation & death(the hostage taker) in the US.
But again in something like this survey you really have to take time to talk to people in areas not just ask the questions on a form.
What you hear is how concerned people really are about how safe it is.
Well right up until you say "yes it is getting dangerous out there" then the first thing you hear "yes but not around here." Even though they have just said the opposite a minute ago.
As I have alluded to before a mate was saying "there is not much crime out there I never see it(Taxi driving)." Told them to "open their eyes" & with that spotted two males carrying out a burglary in broad daylight.
Cartoon Guide to Statistics
So though they can give us an idea of what is going on, Statistics are not always that reliable especially government ones.
Gut instinct always is more accurate & people need to open their eyes, not avoid seeing what is going on.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Drugs, Domestic Violence, Copper theft & Burglary!
Kia Ora,
Was going to write about rats today but then seen this in an investment news letter I was reading.
It was the answer to a question about what caused most killings. In New Zealand Domestic Violence would rate one then possibly drugs or drunk drivers.
Copper theft was main point of article in letter due to rising price, but there has been a warning by New Zealand police on this exact point recently.
With the conitnued worsening of economic conditions people have been cutting the copper earthwires on power poles. Not only does that put the person cutting the wires life at risk but it also, once completed, causes the ground around for something like 8 metres to become electrified.
Not sure how burglary fits in but as the quote comes from a Sheriff in the US were home owners are more likely to have a firearm that could explain both copper & burglary been in the mix to begin with.
Funny but just yesterday it was also mentioned by New Zealand police in one district for the upswing in crime. They said they were getting more in particular domestic violence & alcohol induced violence as usual this time of year but it was worse due to the prevailing economic conditions.
With the financial situation expected to get worse by a long way over the coming months if not years there will only be a further increase in crime.
True stories of crime from the District attorney's office
Not to mention the pressure that is going to go on with less drugs on the street after a big drugs raid today. With as it was reported over the radio station armed police storming a gang pad in Auckland at the same time drug raids took place in Napier.
I support the police in this task but it will lead to in the short term at least an increase in crime, in particular burglaries & violent crime.
Overnight austerity measures have again been the target of demonstrations & riots in Britain. What is happening now & the way the governments are handling it, in particular the US answer of quantitive easing(another way of saying printing currency) is what led to the French Revolution.
This is why the Chinese are trying to manage theirs disregarding threats & comments from the US. They know from their long history that the greatest threat is from their own people especially in this part of the economic cycle.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Was going to write about rats today but then seen this in an investment news letter I was reading.
It was the answer to a question about what caused most killings. In New Zealand Domestic Violence would rate one then possibly drugs or drunk drivers.
Copper theft was main point of article in letter due to rising price, but there has been a warning by New Zealand police on this exact point recently.
With the conitnued worsening of economic conditions people have been cutting the copper earthwires on power poles. Not only does that put the person cutting the wires life at risk but it also, once completed, causes the ground around for something like 8 metres to become electrified.
Not sure how burglary fits in but as the quote comes from a Sheriff in the US were home owners are more likely to have a firearm that could explain both copper & burglary been in the mix to begin with.
Funny but just yesterday it was also mentioned by New Zealand police in one district for the upswing in crime. They said they were getting more in particular domestic violence & alcohol induced violence as usual this time of year but it was worse due to the prevailing economic conditions.
With the financial situation expected to get worse by a long way over the coming months if not years there will only be a further increase in crime.
True stories of crime from the District attorney's office
Not to mention the pressure that is going to go on with less drugs on the street after a big drugs raid today. With as it was reported over the radio station armed police storming a gang pad in Auckland at the same time drug raids took place in Napier.
I support the police in this task but it will lead to in the short term at least an increase in crime, in particular burglaries & violent crime.
Overnight austerity measures have again been the target of demonstrations & riots in Britain. What is happening now & the way the governments are handling it, in particular the US answer of quantitive easing(another way of saying printing currency) is what led to the French Revolution.
This is why the Chinese are trying to manage theirs disregarding threats & comments from the US. They know from their long history that the greatest threat is from their own people especially in this part of the economic cycle.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Drunken Louts!
Kia Ora,
There has been a follow up in the local Christchurch paper "The Press"to the drunken antics over the weekend but in the editorial you get the feeling that the writer has no idea of what security or the police face at these events.
In that the police may have done themselves & the security industry a disservice over the years by playing down previouis incidents.
Young Offenders and Alcohol Related Crime: A Practitioner's Guidebook (Wiley Series in Clinical Approaches to Criminal Behaviour)
And previous incidents there have been plenty of.
At times there have been on the edges of events at Hagley park hundreds of drunk teenagers drinking & fighting. Often with not enough security available to have an impact on it. It is security that should be the first line in dealing with this but the touchy feely way it is approached now means it is not dealt with.
That makes the police job harder.
But it is not just at the park that issues arise.
On one occassion having been tasked with security of an area nearby to Hagley park I was a bit surprised at the end of the same event as this weekend when the area was flooded with over 200 young teenagers drinking, swearing & intent on mayhem. They were moved on but not before a drunk 12 year old tried to staunch me out. Didn't work but I see it is hasn't changed as a 14 year old tried it on someone the other day.
Extending the liquor ban permanently into the area of Hagley park is a great idea but it won't stop the teens drinking. That needs first & foremost education to change the Kiwi mindset on alcohol. Also greater effort on the part of Police, Security but most of all the community to stop this in its tracks.
Alcohol, illegal drugs, violent crime, and traffic-related and other unintended injuries in U.S. local and national news *.: An article from: Journal of Studies on Alcohol
On the occassion where the large group came into area I was carrying out security initially most moved to school next door & police were informed as there was nothing I could do. But a hard core thought they would remain in my area. They were told that once police had finished at the park they were coming through with the dogs.
This was to have amusing repercussions.
The teenagers all moved to the school then off again when community watch then a police patrol showed up.
Shortly after drunk Univeristy students were in the area setting off train alarms then trying to steal vehicles. The police were called again, but the unit dispatched was a dog unit. It encountered groups of teens standing on corners of local streets who sprinted off on seeing the dog unit.
Guidance for local partnerships on alcohol-related crime and disorder data
Whilst they stand on those corners though the teenagers or older groups use properties as toilets, smash bottles & if they are approached by householders instead of as in the past & running they are just as likely to attack the person.
Why can't the police get back on top of out of control crime? Well more often than not they are dealing with out of control drunk young people. It just doesn't happen in Christchurch either!
Academic's take note!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
There has been a follow up in the local Christchurch paper "The Press"to the drunken antics over the weekend but in the editorial you get the feeling that the writer has no idea of what security or the police face at these events.
In that the police may have done themselves & the security industry a disservice over the years by playing down previouis incidents.
Young Offenders and Alcohol Related Crime: A Practitioner's Guidebook (Wiley Series in Clinical Approaches to Criminal Behaviour)
And previous incidents there have been plenty of.
At times there have been on the edges of events at Hagley park hundreds of drunk teenagers drinking & fighting. Often with not enough security available to have an impact on it. It is security that should be the first line in dealing with this but the touchy feely way it is approached now means it is not dealt with.
That makes the police job harder.
But it is not just at the park that issues arise.
On one occassion having been tasked with security of an area nearby to Hagley park I was a bit surprised at the end of the same event as this weekend when the area was flooded with over 200 young teenagers drinking, swearing & intent on mayhem. They were moved on but not before a drunk 12 year old tried to staunch me out. Didn't work but I see it is hasn't changed as a 14 year old tried it on someone the other day.
Extending the liquor ban permanently into the area of Hagley park is a great idea but it won't stop the teens drinking. That needs first & foremost education to change the Kiwi mindset on alcohol. Also greater effort on the part of Police, Security but most of all the community to stop this in its tracks.
Alcohol, illegal drugs, violent crime, and traffic-related and other unintended injuries in U.S. local and national news *.: An article from: Journal of Studies on Alcohol
On the occassion where the large group came into area I was carrying out security initially most moved to school next door & police were informed as there was nothing I could do. But a hard core thought they would remain in my area. They were told that once police had finished at the park they were coming through with the dogs.
This was to have amusing repercussions.
The teenagers all moved to the school then off again when community watch then a police patrol showed up.
Shortly after drunk Univeristy students were in the area setting off train alarms then trying to steal vehicles. The police were called again, but the unit dispatched was a dog unit. It encountered groups of teens standing on corners of local streets who sprinted off on seeing the dog unit.
Guidance for local partnerships on alcohol-related crime and disorder data
Whilst they stand on those corners though the teenagers or older groups use properties as toilets, smash bottles & if they are approached by householders instead of as in the past & running they are just as likely to attack the person.
Why can't the police get back on top of out of control crime? Well more often than not they are dealing with out of control drunk young people. It just doesn't happen in Christchurch either!
Academic's take note!
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Science versus Gut feeling!
Kia Ora,
In a recent post I put bugger the science. Previously someone has questioned my ability to comment when I only rely on experience. military training & gut feeling over 'recognized' qualifications.
Now I am not against science, in fact I once had a choice to make PHD in nuclear physics or the army. I decided on the army although had I read more on Einstein's life I might of still gone nuclear physics. It definitely has its place, but not when it is not also backed by practical experience when practicable.
For example I don't need to see someone actually commit a crime to know they are acting suspiciously. Often it is very much a gut feeling as too whether someone is likely to try something criminal. More often than not right.
Recently here an academic criticised the liquor ban in Christchurch saying it targeted young people unfairly.
He based all this on the figures realsed under the Official Information Act.
Now I have clashed with this academic before at a public meeting where I was able to point out, though they needed to keep an eye on the reason for the meeting they needed to stick to reality.
This person has not here. Obviously they have not been out on a night after midnight in the centre of Christchurch for at least fifteen years. Alcohol has been a major issue within the city that has resulted an upswing in violence.
Or Xmas in the park this last Saturday night as police broke up numerous fights, tipped out alcohol, one teenager was repeatedly stabbed & a police officer assaulted resulting in a fractured jaw as they moved to break up a fight.
Police then had to deal with alcohol related issues including fights in the central city.
True stories of crime from the District attorney's office
Unfortunately most of those likely to come to police or security attention are those of a younger age group. They stand out just by their actions.
During a recent security task I decided to take the bus to the venue. At an interchange two young males were acting the 'man' thinking they were hiding the drinking of their alcohol whilst doing it. All it was doing was drawing attention to them.
When they tried to hide their bottles & board a bus, I intervened which upset them.
Crime and Punishment (Signet Classics)
What they didn't take into account that someone older might was despite their assertion they would not drink on the bus, you just knew they would. That would of brought them to attention of the driver who would of either got into a scuffle or called for police assistance.
Or as they were travelling into the area of the liquor ban they would of quickly come to attention of police & security & they had at least one other bottle each on their body.
This academic wouldn't see that & if they did then stepped up to say something it is likely to end up with them being beaten up these days. It is great to have standards or morals but these days you have to be prepared to put up with some likely collateral damage.
Buzzed: The Straight Facts About the Most Used and Abused Drugs from Alcohol to Ecstasy (Third Edition)
But experience allows you to see these problems coming & in most circumstances be ready before they become an issue. You can have as many qualifications as you want but without being able to pick up the vibes or understand what it is really like on the shop floor they are just worthless bits of paper better used for starting a fire.
In this instance the academic concerned should keep quiet & let those who have too, deal with it.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
In a recent post I put bugger the science. Previously someone has questioned my ability to comment when I only rely on experience. military training & gut feeling over 'recognized' qualifications.
Now I am not against science, in fact I once had a choice to make PHD in nuclear physics or the army. I decided on the army although had I read more on Einstein's life I might of still gone nuclear physics. It definitely has its place, but not when it is not also backed by practical experience when practicable.
For example I don't need to see someone actually commit a crime to know they are acting suspiciously. Often it is very much a gut feeling as too whether someone is likely to try something criminal. More often than not right.
Recently here an academic criticised the liquor ban in Christchurch saying it targeted young people unfairly.
He based all this on the figures realsed under the Official Information Act.
Now I have clashed with this academic before at a public meeting where I was able to point out, though they needed to keep an eye on the reason for the meeting they needed to stick to reality.
This person has not here. Obviously they have not been out on a night after midnight in the centre of Christchurch for at least fifteen years. Alcohol has been a major issue within the city that has resulted an upswing in violence.
Or Xmas in the park this last Saturday night as police broke up numerous fights, tipped out alcohol, one teenager was repeatedly stabbed & a police officer assaulted resulting in a fractured jaw as they moved to break up a fight.
Police then had to deal with alcohol related issues including fights in the central city.
True stories of crime from the District attorney's office
Unfortunately most of those likely to come to police or security attention are those of a younger age group. They stand out just by their actions.
During a recent security task I decided to take the bus to the venue. At an interchange two young males were acting the 'man' thinking they were hiding the drinking of their alcohol whilst doing it. All it was doing was drawing attention to them.
When they tried to hide their bottles & board a bus, I intervened which upset them.
Crime and Punishment (Signet Classics)
What they didn't take into account that someone older might was despite their assertion they would not drink on the bus, you just knew they would. That would of brought them to attention of the driver who would of either got into a scuffle or called for police assistance.
Or as they were travelling into the area of the liquor ban they would of quickly come to attention of police & security & they had at least one other bottle each on their body.
This academic wouldn't see that & if they did then stepped up to say something it is likely to end up with them being beaten up these days. It is great to have standards or morals but these days you have to be prepared to put up with some likely collateral damage.
Buzzed: The Straight Facts About the Most Used and Abused Drugs from Alcohol to Ecstasy (Third Edition)
But experience allows you to see these problems coming & in most circumstances be ready before they become an issue. You can have as many qualifications as you want but without being able to pick up the vibes or understand what it is really like on the shop floor they are just worthless bits of paper better used for starting a fire.
In this instance the academic concerned should keep quiet & let those who have too, deal with it.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
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