Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics!

Kia Ora,

A well known statement which when I looked it up on Wikipedia shows that no one knows for certain where it came from.

It was popularized by Mark Twain who attributted it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli whom it appears never said it. It has more recently been attributed to Sir Charles Wentwood but with no certainty.

It is the statistics that concerns us most today.

But before we go there further on in the wikipedia entry on the above quote was another which I quite liked.

"There are three types of unreliable witnesses, a liar, a damned liar, & an expert." Robert Giffen 1892.

Now in a recent post I wrote of the only real experts in counter terrorism would be memebers of the SAS/former SAS or a former terrorist. The difference been is that none of them would claim to be experts, but would have the experience to back it up.

It is those that claim the expert tag that you have to watch. We have seen that a lot lately with so called experts all contradiciting each other & any debate or opinion offered always countered by; "what do you know? They are listening to the experts."
Statistics, 4th Edition
The reason for the quote today though is a government statistic has been released on crime. The statistic to be least trusted is a government one.

Now several years ago a New Zealand media outlet quoted figures of 95% of crime & 96% of violent crime is not reported in New Zealand. No one knows where they got those figures from but what we do know is a lot of crime is not reported.

Now people take some note when you say most crime is not reported but they really take note when you say 95% is not reported even though where the figures come from no one knows.
Statistics in Plain English, Third Edition
This new government statistic says that around 66% of crime is not reported but what crime there is happens only in 33% of the population.

Some of the results of the survey of 8000 people needs to be questioned though.

Like reasons for not reporting crime. They don't think police will show, well we already knew that one but when they say people didn't think it was a crime you have to ask how did it get in the survey then?

What do we know then?

Most crime actually happens in the poor neighbourhoods & many then do not report because they are anti/don't trust the police, don't like to be seen as a dobbing in their mates, just don't want to know or are scared of possible action been taken against them or their family.
Principles of Statistics
One comment from the survey shows it is all academically based as opposed to facts.

Many people mentioned they felt safe in their area.

One of the most common things you hear when a murder or violence occurs is "Can't believe it would happen around here as it is such a quiet street."

It is amazing how many people these days who have no idea what actually happens in their street let alone neighbourhood.

Someone was heard to quote that remark here in Christchurch recently after a murder.

"It is such a quiet street & area nothing happens here." Yet from the vicinity of the street where the murder was there had been about five murders from memory within a kilometre, some even closer in last few years. It is regarded as a high crime area.

In fact thought there had been a murder in that street mentioned.
Statistics for Dummies
The statistics are on the right track but I don't think reflect reality. It is a lot worse that people like to think it is & right now getting worse due to the worsening financial crisis.

The worsening financial crisis has being said to be one of the reasons behind a recent hostage situation & death(the hostage taker) in the US.

But again in something like this survey you really have to take time to talk to people in areas not just ask the questions on a form.

What you hear is how concerned people really are about how safe it is.

Well right up until you say "yes it is getting dangerous out there" then the first thing you hear "yes but not around here." Even though they have just said the opposite a minute ago.

As I have alluded to before a mate was saying "there is not much crime out there I never see it(Taxi driving)." Told them to "open their eyes" & with that spotted two males carrying out a burglary in broad daylight.
Cartoon Guide to Statistics
So though they can give us an idea of what is going on, Statistics are not always that reliable especially government ones.

Gut instinct always is more accurate & people need to open their eyes, not avoid seeing what is going on.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Real Anger is building!

Kia Ora,

In recent months the South Island of New Zealand has had some knock backs. But to all of these knock backs is a connection to the riots in Italy & one in particular.

Of all those knock backs the most heart wrenching has been the mine accident at Pike River with 29 miners dead.

Right now there is a lot of anger as they keep getting hit with more bad news & some reactions have targeted people they think are benefitting from the accident whilst others suffer.

Overall the governments reaction now is typical bureaucrat speak/corruption with any excuse to do nothing. Which only increases the building anger.

Then there has been the snow storm in Southland which didn't kill anyone or cause great damage it seems apart from the collapse of the Stadium Southland roof.

Another has been the crash of the plane in Fox Glacier the same day as the Canterbury Earthquake killing all nine on board. In fact I heard anger regarding this recently as to how nothing much was done for such a big event in an isolated area.

So anger is starting to build over several incidents.
High Availability and Disaster Recovery: Concepts, Design, Implementation
Then there is the Canterbury Earthquake mainly centred on Christchurch.

Initial reaction not bad considering how lucky we were but now the anger over the lack of reaction is starting to build.

This is where the corrupt bureaucratic system needs to take note.

Part of the Italian riots was centred around a group from the earthquake struck city of L'Auilla which had 300 people killed by a quake in 2009. They were upset & angry over the slowness of government reaction.

Tha same has happened in Haiti, but in a shorter space of time probably due to the greater destruction & death toll.
Disaster Recovery
Canterbury & in particular Christchurch were lucky due to good building standards meant no deaths.

But since then it seems that every bureaucrat involved has been taking lessons from ACC on how to do it in the most cost inefficient fashion & to find any excuse not to do anything unless the news media get involved.

Part of that is due to the Kiwi mindset were they don't want to rock the boat & there is always someone worse off. Problem with that attitude is the bureaucrats take advantage of it & try to make people feel guilty about ringing in.
Disaster Recovery Planning: Preparing for the Unthinkable (3rd Edition)
In fact in New Zealand if you complain you are seen as the one at fault.

But it is now trying for people in what were seen as not 'badly' affected areas as they get the run around after hearing all the badly hit buildings have been dealt with. This is despite wide spread liquifaction, damage to roofs, floors & structures in these areas with it likely some of these houses will have to come down.

As one friend who keeps trying to find out what is going to happen to their house says they keep getting the janitor when they ring. Yet again the information given is in direct contradiction of that the politicians & CEO of EQC are giving in the media.
Syndromes of Corruption: Wealth, Power, and Democracy
So now we have anger building in at least two areas over poor responses, a financial crisis that is expected to get worse & the lack of boundaries in our society mean we have a cocktail for the riots to happen here in the same manner as we have been watching in Europe.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

If there are Riots over fees what will they do when this hits?

Kia Ora,

Before we get into todays topic thanks to Simon for his comment.

Yes there could be repercussions as gang seeks out weak links. But in the main any rise in crime & violent crime actually comes from people cut off from their supplies. They often move to more violent crime to get the currency as cost of their favourite drug goes up due to decrease in supply & they need more currency fast.

Yet again mayhem rules on the streets of London but it is only over the rasing of school fees.

Well what is going to happen when people find out their retirement fund or superannuation has all been taken?

Many will not believe that but just do a search for the 60 minutes clip on the 401K for New Zealanders one of the US equals to our Kiwisaver super scheme. Its an eye opener.

In a forum recently some Australians were talking about how the same is happening with their scheme which was supposed to be the best in the world. Now I have word that Australia has moved to allow people to control their own, but as some US commentators have said of their 401K it is letting people who know nothing about investing into investing, so basically another way to steal their currency. People need to educate themselves & take control of their own lives.

With the right knowledge they can do well in the markets whilst all others are loosing out.
The French Revolution
So if as one commentator has said in recent days that 95% of the world(definitely western world) will be bankrupt within the next three years, the value of their most prize possessions plummet(search for Mike Maloney Dead cat bounce on youtube), their savings for retirement are gone & their education counts for nothing as a new slavery system is set up to replace the education system.

What are the riots going to be like?

Or is it going to be a revolution or two?

If Wikileaks gets the chance will it be its release of the details from a large bank that will trigger it to accelerate once people know the truth?

Would the information that comes out be something like you get on this clip Crash JP Morgue , look it up on the internet.

Crime is about to rise again based on the information on those three clips alone if people haven't prepared themselves.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Mindset on Security needs to change!

Kia Ora,

A news item has shown a breach of security at a New Zealand Military base two years ago with graffitti been applied to an Australian air force plane.

In response a security fence was erected around the airfield. Now to people overseas that might seem far fetched but most New Zealand military bases until recent years have been open to anyone.

The camp I spent most of my army career in used to be so open. The week we arrived there a member of the Soviet Embassy had been caught because they were sitting out front with a clip board noting the registration of cars entering & leaving the camp. The KGB is alleged to have used New Zealand as its training base since our security was so slack.

We have put fences up but not much else has changed. Security in general is now provided by private companies but with minimum manning.

The airforce response to the photographs of the damage to the planes has been we are providing great security. I know they aren't & they have been told by a former soldier that they weren't, but they knew better.
Private Armed Forces and Global Security: A Guide to the Issues
But it not just there. Encountered the same issue when tendering for the security contract at a defence headquarters venue. When we didn't get the contract they sent reasons for not obtaining it.

First was not going to comply with the NZQA(qualification) requirement. As was pointed out in reply & in the tender document minimum standard was ex military so highest standard & level of security(paradox here as the military has access to this knowledge but doesn't use it) which is much much higher than NZQA. In fact I wouldn't hire people with NZQA unless they had the experience & background to back it up. The standards as applied now to those qualifications are too low for them to be even in the industry.
Guarding Against Espionage, Sabotage, & Subversion - Military Base Security (1953)
Second point was no one visited the site. Reply was didn't have too as requirements were spelt out but also since the issue of the tender had blown up in the news media from footage they were lucky no one did as tender would of been at least doubled.

Last point they had was tender was outside their budget.

Reply here was due to nature of facility payments planned were greater than normal security. Also the fact that outlined current provider at the time could not provide the requirements of current laws with the numbers they had. Therefore numbers planned for took into account the laws & changes of laws due to ocme into effect.
Private Armed Forces and Global Security: A Guide to the Issues (Contemporary Military, Strategic, and Security Issues)
Had no reply but what that said to me was they had not carried out a proper risk assessment of possible threats & that the laws regarding employment did not apply to government departments.

We need to get our mindset sorted. This is a recurring theme you see in New Zealand & therefore in my blogs regarding security. Why wait until people are killed again by terrorist actions?

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is Secrecy necessary?

Kia Ora,

Well Wikileaks has put the cat amongst the pigeons with great effort been put into trying to shut down the site & many questions been asked about the charges alleged against the founder.

Is Secrecy necessary? It is a question many are asking in the wake of the releases.

Overall there has not a lot of real secrets been released this time around. Opinons that are not that much different than people who follow what is going on in places like Pakistan.

Of course they have to be careful that nothing puts people's lives in danger, but overall so far there really hasn't been a lot that people didn't already think was happening. These releases just confirmed the truth.

Some have been on civilians actually killed in Iraq. Though for many in America that might of seemed until now like propaganda against the US, the standing comment by Iraqis when there was when a comment was made about the population was "26 million but now 25 million because the Americans kill so many."
Read My Pins: Stories from a Diplomat's Jewel Box
But is secrecy necessary?

To a certain extent yes.

There are things that are carried out in the name of countries to allow the citizens to carry on their lives as they wish but would not like to know about.

Then there are those situations where to reveal information would put lives at risk. Or the legal risk of those opinons becoming known.

Another reason might be future intentions where it would give an unfair advantage.
Diplomat's Dictionary (Cross-Cultural Negotiation Books)
Overall a little more of what governments alwasy claim they provide but don't, transparency & freedom of speech would be good. When you look into what has happened in the US alone in the way the people have been hoodwinked it is no wonder it is the land of the conspiracy theory because it is actually true. From the turning of the education system into the modern slavery system starting in about 1903 to the secret meetings to set up the private bank now known as the Federal reserve starting in 1904 it never seems to end.

Is some secreacy necessary? Yes, but governments & bureaucrats been more open & honest might just make this world a better place.

It might just remove some of the frustration people feel because they know that things are not as they are told & don't feel the need to lash out.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz