How long & far will the Dominoes fall?

Kia Ora,

Many of the financial commentators I follow are of the opinion that the US is likely to have either a revolution or civil war based on the fact that the actions been taken by the Federal Reserve have now made conditions worse than the French Revolution. All it needs is a few tweaks & it will all come tumbling down. Tweaks like inflation causing the amount spent weekly on food from the take home pay to rise.

That has been seen as the real trigger behind the continuing unrest in the Middle East.

Meanwhile here in New Zealand the belief it will never happen here. But then that is the claim for just about everything here.

One person said to me that New Zealand would never have a revolution as it is all too PC so no one would want to offend anyone.

Though I think it is more complex than that & the PC New Zealand is actually breeding conditions right for it to happen.

We have had in the past what amounted attempts to change governments. The 1913 waterfront strike been the first broken up by what became known as Massey's Cossacks as Terroritorial mounted units rode to town to break it up. Both sides were a year later fighting for King & country in Egypt & a year later Gallipoli.

Then in 1951 again it was the water front strike where the Unions took on the government who sent in the police & army.
The Oxford History of the French Revolution
The difference these days is the power of social media to quickly organize then mobilize people. In particular young people(its the young that have been at the heart of all recent issues around the world) who because of our PC society think they have all the rights. Right there is one requirement for a riot from the start. A shared common belief.

For years now our youth like those across the world have been using different forms of social media to organize. Not long after returning from security work in Iraq I was called to help at a birthday party. The expected 70 people went to 300 in about five minutes by use of text(SMS) messages. Good use of a note book & knowledge of the law soon had that back to the expected 70.

A week later two young girls died when a party got out of control & police were confronted by up to 1000 people also organized by text message.
The Dragonfly Effect: Quick, Effective, and Powerful Ways To Use Social Media to Drive Social Change
More recently facebook has been used to organize parties on beaches in Auckland then even more recently a party in Greymouth where police were attacked.

It is no mistake that governments in the middle east shut down social media but by then it was too late.

As they used to say a person would tell six people if they were upset who would tell six people. With emails it was said this changed to 200 people told. With social media you tell the world & once it is out there right or wrong there is no stopping it.
30 Days to Social Media Success: The 30 Day Results Guide to Making the Most of Twitter, Blogging, LinkedIN, and Facebook
For those a bit older like myself it has been hard to understand first the appeal then how it could affect what we do or our society. We did know that society was changing especially in the likes of security because we were confronting it often & still are.

It was one of those 'aha' moments to realize how immensely powerful these new tools were. Governments still do not realize just how powerful. By their nature bureaucarcies move slowly even when efficient which they generally are not. They can not combat the speed at which social media works.

Using New Zealand as an example of what may happen there needs to be a focal point. Now similar to what happened in Italy at one part where one march was joined by several groups with different gripes with the government resulting in unrest could happen here.
The New Social Learning: A Guide to Transforming Organizations Through Social Media
For example shortly there is likely to be a Hikoi(march on a point of disagreement by mainly the Maori community) heading to Wellington(our capital city) now other groups could join in at Wellington such as Unions, citizens of Canterbury upset about the poor government response to the earthquake(as happened in Italy) so you suddenly have a lot of upset people in one place.

It would be easier with social media to suddenly add to that a large group of youths who have been watching youtube & think it would be great to emulate others around the world.

People say others would not take part but once something like a riot starts or builds people get caught up in the feeling. From there seeing what has happened around the world it is only a short step to the next level then another dominoe falls.
Social Media 101: Tactics and Tips to Develop Your Business Online
What has started in the Middle East could easily continue around the whole world & with social media involvment no country is safe from its effects. It really is that powerful when combined with other ingredients & like a row of dominoes.

There is word now that Algeria has stockpiled food to give out to its people to help settle tensions. China has not just stockplied commodities to keep its industry going through the hard times but guaranteed access to some food, though they have banned the people from hoarding food.

It will be interesting to see if this time tested form of appeasing people can stop the dominoes or even outpace social media?

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Chickens are coming home to Roost!

Kia Ora,

It really seems in the Western world at least the Chickens are coming home to Roost.

Through out Europe the Sovereign debt crisis is starting to have an effect at least for now in what has become known in the financial circles for some time as the PIIGS or Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain.

Bail outs & austerity measures followed by riots. Italy even got their riots in before as they known what is coming.

Britain & France ausiterity measures same result. Because everyone has not wanted to listen to the 'doom & gloom' predictions but as one financial commentator likes to say;
"Those that prepare for the worst only know the best."

Then you have JP Morgan been hounded for manipulating the silver market. One estimate is it has shorts on 3.3 billion ounces of silver. That is more than all that is available above ground. Depending on who you are reading or listening too at least three times more than is above ground.

To short that much means someone is selling that much. A short is where someone sells a derivative or share they don't own with the view to buying it back at a lower price because they think the market is about to go lower. First rule is never sell naked(or with something to cover the trade going the other way) word is they forgot the first rule.

Since they are now under investigation for the manipulation & a campaign has also started to bankrupt them through the silver market they have taken a hedge of buying 50 to 80% of the copper market (now reportedly possibly 90%) that is currently held in warehouses. A hedge is to cover your losses should a trade go the opposite way to what you expect.
Setting Boundaries with Your Adult Children: Six Steps to Hope and Healing for Struggling Parents
If so then it would mean the manipulation of the silver market is at an end once they can cover their losses. Though in the last few days a large amount of puts(options trade when you think the price will go down) have gone on silver at $15 which means someone expects silver to go lower or are hoping it will.

So if people think they have all this silver or gold & find out that it is not available what then?

Not to mention most will not be aware that you can no longer exchange those derivatives for actual physical gold or silver. It changed earlier this year & most people are not aware of that fact.

So that are two forms of the same Chickens coming home but there is a third which you have seen in the protests & riots in Europe.

That is the lack of boundaries for children growing up. There is no respect anymore & a belief that it is ok to attack those whose job is it to keep society from sliding into anarchy. Seems by having no boundaries the anarchy is arriving anyway.
Assertiveness/Boundary Setting: Restoring Limits
In the last week here in New Zealand teenagers have being involved in stealing vehicles, dangerous driving, drunken driving being killed by not been able to handle a vehicle, running from the police or accidents & attacking police officers. Not to mention armed robberies.

What is going to happen when the government has to impliment its austerity measures? So far all the protests here have been quite civil in nature.

Society has lost control.

The comment the other day was "well burglaries & crime will be up as it is school holidays." It has been like that for a few years now but right now it is an epidemic & the police do what they can under the law but as they found one teen just kept leaving home & stealing cars.


So all the out of control spending & use of bad debt over good debt coupled with lack of boundaries is resulting in the break down of society.

The Chickens are really coming home to Roost!

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

To be a Judge you need to be completely out of touch!

Kia Ora,

Not sure what world judges live in but it at times seems to be not the real world!

A judge here in Christchurch has found that the police were wrong in arresting people at a boyracer gathering based on what has happened at previous gatherings. Those people were arrested wrongly because the judges opinion is that they never intended to use violence.

Excuse me?

Obviously he has never had to deal with these groups as if they gather in an area such as they did on this occassion they have every intention of causing mayhem & destroying property.

Residents are scared as it is & any attempt to reason with these groups is usually meet with bottles thrown & even people attacked or threatened in their own homes.

This judge has three options. Get out & experience the real world before his next case, resign or be sacked. They are clearly not up to the task of deciding cases based on a blinkered view of what goes on at these gatherings. It is now actually two judges who are out of touch with the real world after another judge made a decision in the same vein about another of this group.
Secularism unphilosophical, immoral, and anti-social: verbatim report of a
Meanwhile the police again come under scrutiny over police chases as two more people have died as a result of fleeing the police. One group were in a stolen car & the other was a lone speeding driver.

Now the police minister also mentioned that in another similar incident where she was accompanying police a shotgun had been found in a vehicle. Not sure when or where that was but it is time people realized if someone runs from police there is usually another reason behind it.

For example the vehicle that run from police here in Christchurch & killed three on Moorhouse Avenue the driver was forbidden to drive, over the legal alcohol limit & had a long criminal record also from photographs of funeral for this person he was connected to a gang(crypts).

Also unless I am very much mistaken he & his mate were two of the four who attacked me three weeks earlier, so I won't waste any tears over their deaths. Had the police apprehended them for the attack on me they were up for aggravated robbery & possibly GBH since I needed an operation after the attack.
Naming the Enemy: Anti-Corporate Social Movements Confront Globalization
People who run will be caught in the end & it will affect things like their ability to travel.

The police need greater powers to deal with these issues & greater backing from a judiciary that has a grip on reality.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

What is Aid to the Civil Power?

Kia Ora,

Thought I would expand on this as there seems to be some confusion over military's role in this situation.

I say that because when working the other night it came up re the military should of been on the ground sooner.
Military Aid to the Civil Power
One of the Civil Defence people wsa most concerned that that would mean the miltary arrivng & taking over.

It was pointed out to them that as pointed out when army went on streets with police they were under police command. From a military point of view they are just transferring skills used in other roles such as SAE(Services Assisted Evacuation) & SPE(Services Protected Evacuation) used to evacuate people from foreign shores.

Aid to the Civil Power is just what it says. It is there to Aid the Civil Power. Not take over.

Last night how it can be used was shown with combined Police & Army Patrols around quake hit areas to limit crime on the streets of Christchurch. It could of been used to limit rubber neckers.
Military Aid to the Civil Power (International Military Law & History Series, Vol 1)
It was also pointed out that having some military people there could help with their set up as it was pretty haphazaed. Civil Defence been mainly volunteers who do contribute greatly but there are upsides to having peole alongside who use those processes at times on a daily basis.

At this particular site I knew two of the civil defence people from another role they have in life. One was telling me that when they first showed up it was chaos. Some of the people were trying to use an old system, others the new system & someone else told me the new system didn't work so they had to go back to the old system. It took one person arriving & taking control after hours of non action that got them moving. Yet what I saw it was still not that great. But you did notice the difference when that one person came back on shift.
Some aspects of aid to the civil power in Australia (Occasional monograph / Dept. of Government, Faculty of Military Studies, University of New South Wales)
Right from the start it puts numbers out there. Such as on the street. Justin's comment about hs security company not reporting crime as they thought the police were too busy with other things points to the problem. Just having the manpower on the streets, first impacts on crime by just been there & second allows the authorities to ensure those core services are still deliverable. Otherwise as shown in New Orleans the norms breakdown very quickly.

It was not just Justin's security company thinkng that way though. Those who carried out burglaries obviously thought the same.

So did the boy racers. With the police been on top of this anti social grouping in the last month or two, it has been noticeable in this area which has got off reasonably lightly, boy racers drinking smashing bottles then carrying out their anti social activities as they believe they can not be touched. Had it been upgraded the boy racers would of not enjoyed meeting a Lav.

Same with some deciding they can use it as an excuse to again start playng loud music at outrageous hours & use drugs. Last Saturday night I could understand it or had they been part of those helping out, but six days later when they have done no more than they normally do, it is just an excuse to carryout anti social behaviour.

Not to mention that if you have been part of the help or having issues then using drugs & marijuana in particular is the last thing you should be doing.
MILITARY AID TO THE CIVIL POWER
The other advantage of having the military is if their is a requirement to step up a level they can do it easily.

As Justin points out in his comment the NZ Security Industry is putting in big hours during this earthquake & aftermath with no recognition.

What is less well known is that after Katrina in New Orleans as the US military is not allowed to give security assistance within the US, it was left to the National Guard & Private Security. In regards to the private security many of them came straight from private security work in Iraq or training courses pre deployment to Iraq.

There was even the story of someone completing a course to deploy to Iraq & then their group been told they are not going to Iraq but are required in New Orleans & one person saying. "Great where is that & what happened?".

Having the ability for the military step up stops the haphazard security standards in the NZ Security Industry been exposed.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Too little, too late! The seed has been sown!

Kia Ora,

After yesterday's blog I went back to look at the Facebook page in regards to riots in New Zealand. It appears to have been removed.

But it is too little too late!

The seed has already been sown for problems down the road.
Sexual Dynamics of Anti-Social Behavior
When you have a site which has over 21,000 people connected to it, just by deleting the site does not stop the thought processes.

There is now the belief out there in the community that should the All Blacks loose during the Rugby World Cup 2011 here in New Zealand it is ok to start a riot.
Executive Function & Self-Regulation in Children
21,000 might not seem a lot of people but if all of those are in NZ or plan to be during the Rugby World Cup then out of a population of four million people that is a significant amount. Enough to get the ball rolling on mayhem & destruction.

I know that probably 99.9% of the NZ Security Industry at present are not trained in riot control or ways to stop it before it gets out of control.
Bad by-products of religion: How the pious twist truth, persecute freethinkers, commit crimes, advance unsupported claims and in other ways indulge in anti-social behavior
To counter that even if they know of it is tricky for the police. Make too much of it then it gives it wider appeal, but there needs to be communicated the punishments faced for anyone who instigates a riot or tries too.

Just taking the page off Facebook is too little too late. Social media such as Facebook have to take social responsibility & actually stop these types of pages before they are allowed to get their message out.
Children Who Hate: A Sensitive Analysis of the Anti-Social Behavior of Children in their Response to the Adult World
That they have 500 million users is no excuse. When you have these business models you have responsibilities & it doesn't stop just taking the page off when you receive a complaint.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Facebook helps promote criminal activity in New Zealand!

Kia Ora,

How is Facebook helping to promote criminal activity in New Zealand?

By allowing a page to be formed calling for riots is the All Blacks loose in the Rugby World Cup 2011 here in NZ.

What those that set up the page do not realize is they most likely can be prosecuted for incitement to riot.

Tonight the police here in Christchurch will not have a great night as the local Rugby team lost. It would be a lot worse if they, the Crusaders(professional team) or All Blacks lost in the city itself.

Yes a lot of people on that page will be on there just for fun, but there is a growing number that will be on there to happily take part in any anti social activities that would break out if this situation arises.

The NZ police have said that they are ready for any eventuality & are preparing for issues at the Stadia.
Antisocial Behavior: Personality Disorders from Hostility to Homicide
But what if the issues arise away from the Stadia? Most New Zealanders are not going to be able to attend the main games live as they have already been seen to be far too expensive for most.

It is doubtful that the police or NZ Security Industry will be ready for too many incidents at once of this type.

So gatherings in town centres or hospitality spots such as Party Central will be where it starts as people get angry over the loss & it would spread quickly. If people already have a common belief, as promoted by the Facebook page, then it wouldn't take much to spark riots.

One of the six requirements for a riot to occur is a common belief.

Social Media can be useful, but it also can spread quickly messages that can have far retching consequences such as text messages to out of control parties that the police regularly have to deal with.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

New Zealands vision of itself versus visitors perception once here!

Kia Ora,

Spent yesterday at an expo & talking to locals, we talked about the so called good security at the latest All Black Rugby test here in Christchurch. At the same time a letter to the editor of 'The Press' from a visitor to that test challenged the image of New Zealand.

Then today we have complaints against how police acted when clearing a party recently here in Christchurch with police response.

Just as i write this there is an item on TV about knife crime in Britain with the comment on how New Zealand could avoid it by been on top of things.

First thing first. The comments of locals who attended the Rugby test which was viewed as a test for the Rugby World Cup 2011.

After it was all played up they said they expected, with what they were carrying, to be searched but apart from been asked "do you have anything in there?" they were waived through.

So net result a big 'F' for fail again in basic access control. That will not or should not be acceptable to those who are in charge of Rugby World Cup Security.

Next was the letter from the visitor to the local newspaper. There was a lot of discussion around on how it was 'only a few bad eggs'.

Afraid not & the visitor would of seen a lot more of that behaviour had the All Blacks lost. When in the security industry you see too much of the idiot brigade in Christchurch often carried out by the last people you would expect & it has been getting worse.

New Zealand needs to grow up quickly if it doesn't want to embarrass itself if the Rugby World Cup takes place here. There is still enough time to transfer it to Australia if New Zealand can not get its act together in two related areas. Security & behaviour.
Visitors are generally shocked by the poor behaviour, especially once alcohol is involved, of these lovely Kiwis.

Speaking of behaviour in particular bad behaviour, it is now seen acceptable to question any actions taken by the police despite the fact that the people in question are more often than not breaking the law.

The situation this time was a party that someone had started a fire at, police were requested by the fire brigade & on arrival had bottles thrown at them.

I don't see the police had any option but to take aggressive action. The fact that some were apparently sitting quietly when hit & pepper sprayed is of no consequence.

If you associate with what are essentially criminal elements then you have no excuse to complain when the authorities take action. The police have no way of knowing who is what, when they move in on what appears to be a large party. Of course everyone is innocent after the fact. Guilty by association.
What are visitors going to make of the drunken violence that abounds in this country?

Of course the last item knife crime in the UK & the comment that NZ needs to keep on top of it.

Too late the horse has bolted on that one. A recent comment on police in Christchurch was that virtually every person they arrest these days has a knife on them.

So any visitor entering NZ thinking they are coming to a nice safe place needs to think again. It can be very enjoyable with a lot friendly people, but visitors need to take the normal precautions they take at home & maybe learn a few local things or places to avoid.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

End of boy racers? Yeah Right!

Kia Ora,

The headlines in the Christchurch 'Press' was "Bylaw drives out boy racers". Not from what I have seen & heard & as one commented in article "the bylaw is not going to work".

Already I have seen new tactics. First weekend or so it was big fast moving groups, then a lot more single vehicles & the last weekend what appeared to be groups of 6 to 7 vehicles, the lead vehicle choosing a spot then carrying out a doghnut or burnout, before they all moved on.

What I would expect probably as early as this weekend is another challenge to the police in Christchurch by the boy racers, especially after those quoted comments.

It would even be worse if the All Blacks(NZ's national Rugby team-at present rated No 1 in the world) loose this weekend as that always increases problems especially when they play in the city.

At present though, with the boy racers dispersed it means there are a lot more police vehicles on the road, going by last weekend.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Do they really care about anyone else or themselves for that matter?

Kia Ora,

Following on from yesterday's Blog I thought we should look at the attitude of the groups like 'boyracers' & use the footage I shot of the 'girlracers' here in Christchurch as an example.

As we experience life we realize that somethings we did when younger impacted on others in ways we didn't think off. No different today until you look at whether they really care about anybody else or themselves. In fact as one of the females in the video showed with her abuse, they think that you have no right for interferring with their criminal activities.

Just yesterday I bumbped into an ex army comrade & we actually discussed this issue. They were talking about how they got caught in the middle of a cruise heading home, a 4WD pulled out in amongst road works & started knocking down all the cones etc. This person exited their vehicle, took the registration of the 4WD & called police. The Plates were not of that vehicle, they then copped a lot of abuse from the vehicles behind them,in particular the young women in one vehicle. Called this person a looser.
Looser? Excuse me but this person has served in New Zealand's Military & is reporting a crime that could result in someones death. that is more than those abusing them have done for the country I would bet.

The same when you look at the car & more importantly the occupants in the video.

First the female urinating in the bushes on the business premises. This impacts on businesses as it is not good for clients or prospective clients to arrive to then smell urine or in some cases worse(something clients need to think of when employing security guards, no toilet they have to go somewhere as holding it in can result in a hernia-I know because that is what surgeon said probably caused the one I had operated on a few years ago).

For the female on the other side of the fence it was actually worse if she had taken into account her own safety.

That area is often frequented by small groups of mainly males, tagging or using it as a shortcut especially at 0120(1.20am). So there is the first threat. The second is that about a foot behind her were some railway tracks that many think are basically unused, but are used almost daily at any time of the day or night for shunting carriages into a siding for loading.

Then of course, once caught they decided to drive off with their lights off putting other road users at risk as well as themselves. They are at fault here not me for catching them. Just like the NZ police when you are signalled to pull over for whatever reason. You are in the wrong if you run from police, not the police!

It is quite obvious when you deal constantly with these people that as far as they are concerned, no one else has rights but them. This is a whole new mindshift from previous generations, where though people bucked the need to conform, they still showeed respect for others.

The PC crowd need to get out & see the real world. It is not nice & been touchy feely will not fix the issues. Those that are causing the issues have no regard for your PC ways. They actually think you are a joke, but will take all the outs you give them & run with them. At least that is my experience mainly here in Christchurch.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz