Is That list really a Security Threat?

Kia Ora,

The big news world wide is of course the list Wikileaks has released on supposed industries & assets the US wants most to protect.

But what does the list really tell us?

First that in some cases all the eggs are in one basket so need to have a careful eye kept on them.

So there needs to be a decision as to whether the eggs need to be split up or just left as they are with maybe enhanced security & are they really that important?
Modern Insurgencies and Counter-Insurgencies: Guerrillas and their Opponents since 1750 (Warfare and History)
Secondly that maybe the US still hasn't fully come to grips with the fact that though those maybe important targets especially in a conventional war situation the targets might be a lot different in a terrorist campaign.

It is a lesson from Vietnam that seemed to have been overlooked when you touched down in Iraq. Insurgents & terrorists might be more worried about getting good media coverage & into the hearts & minds of the people back home.

Vietnam's turning point is said to be the occupation during the Tet offensive of the US embassy in Saigon & its affect on the American mindset back home.

That is not to say many in the American services were not trying but in a big organization from a country that likes to stick rigidly to procedures to think outside the square gets you in trouble. But in this type of warfare it is those on the ground, soldiers & NCO's that make the difference especially in the important hearts & minds of locals. Not throwing currency at the issue.
The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One
Now the US might of at least learned part of that lesson as it was rumoured during our time in Baghdad that a certain radio message one day inside the Green Zone was due to five insurgents managing to get inside the Chancery of the US embassy.

It is almost likely behind the suppression of generally known information(like a suicide bombing because you generally knew about them alright)to keep the public on the forces side. Today we have the internet so a lot was known to be or seen to be going on was in the public domain, hence a loss of support anyway. Wikileaks has only confirmed what was already believed to be or known to be going on.

Thirdly that terrorists & insrugents do exactly like we do & carry out reconnaissance to see what targets & their weaknesses are available. I wouldn't be surprised if all the places mentioned are not already on lists of terrorist cells.

Now they regularly did this in Iraq & we were picking them up doing their recon's & reporting it to the US military who promptly ignored us since we were private security. Almost everytime a suicide bomb was detonated within a day or on the day of reporting.

Three guys in a car with binoculars or another vehicle with a video camera all trained on one point at different times is usually a good give away.
The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual
You only have to look at main target on 9/11 to see how effective an attack can be on the mindset of people.

Look at it from a terrorist point of view. The actual important targets might be too hard to get at so what can they hit on the side that will still have an effect?
Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (PSI Classics of the Counterinsurgency Era)
Now I go back to the Rugby World Cup here in New Zealand as perfect target.

Slack security & likely to be not much better next year as no one thinks it will ever happen here(the belief there is no threat is the biggest threat).

Three prime targets.

Party Central Auckland but been main venue likely to have highest secruity presence.

Game the US team is to play for some reason on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. What idiot allowed that to happen needs to be sacked. So high priority target right there. Gets world wide coverage.
The Counter-Insurgency Manual
The third has always been my pick until that game was scheduled for the anniversary.

Christchurch Rugby road, bars & any large gathering such as in Cathederal Square.

Why?

We have an American base nearby. Don't hit the base but in the city it is in. There are going to be a lot of tourists in town & a co-ordinated attack on several points at once(as they have done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bali, London & New Delhi)will be world wide news in less than 10 minutes & will be felt across the world.

Hitting a so called peaceful country(most peaceful in the world apparently) will have a greater effect than trying to take on identified important targets.
Counterinsurgency
To really counter terrorists you have to think like one.

So is the list helpful to terrorists. I don't think so as they will have either identified them for what ever reason or have ones they think are important of their own.

So what is really been hidden or are governments trying to stop?

Probably the release of the information on one of the large American banks which could be the trigger which causes the collapse of the worlds financial system.

Or as Warren Buffett says, as it will take down the derivatives market, the real "Weapons of Mass Destruction"! This will lead to the the break down of society!

It is going to happen anyway based on the history of finance, but will just likely happen quicker depending on what is released.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Mindset on Security needs to change!

Kia Ora,

A news item has shown a breach of security at a New Zealand Military base two years ago with graffitti been applied to an Australian air force plane.

In response a security fence was erected around the airfield. Now to people overseas that might seem far fetched but most New Zealand military bases until recent years have been open to anyone.

The camp I spent most of my army career in used to be so open. The week we arrived there a member of the Soviet Embassy had been caught because they were sitting out front with a clip board noting the registration of cars entering & leaving the camp. The KGB is alleged to have used New Zealand as its training base since our security was so slack.

We have put fences up but not much else has changed. Security in general is now provided by private companies but with minimum manning.

The airforce response to the photographs of the damage to the planes has been we are providing great security. I know they aren't & they have been told by a former soldier that they weren't, but they knew better.
Private Armed Forces and Global Security: A Guide to the Issues
But it not just there. Encountered the same issue when tendering for the security contract at a defence headquarters venue. When we didn't get the contract they sent reasons for not obtaining it.

First was not going to comply with the NZQA(qualification) requirement. As was pointed out in reply & in the tender document minimum standard was ex military so highest standard & level of security(paradox here as the military has access to this knowledge but doesn't use it) which is much much higher than NZQA. In fact I wouldn't hire people with NZQA unless they had the experience & background to back it up. The standards as applied now to those qualifications are too low for them to be even in the industry.
Guarding Against Espionage, Sabotage, & Subversion - Military Base Security (1953)
Second point was no one visited the site. Reply was didn't have too as requirements were spelt out but also since the issue of the tender had blown up in the news media from footage they were lucky no one did as tender would of been at least doubled.

Last point they had was tender was outside their budget.

Reply here was due to nature of facility payments planned were greater than normal security. Also the fact that outlined current provider at the time could not provide the requirements of current laws with the numbers they had. Therefore numbers planned for took into account the laws & changes of laws due to ocme into effect.
Private Armed Forces and Global Security: A Guide to the Issues (Contemporary Military, Strategic, and Security Issues)
Had no reply but what that said to me was they had not carried out a proper risk assessment of possible threats & that the laws regarding employment did not apply to government departments.

We need to get our mindset sorted. This is a recurring theme you see in New Zealand & therefore in my blogs regarding security. Why wait until people are killed again by terrorist actions?

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

The Real Weapons of Mass Destruction!

Kia Ora,

As we all know the US & its coalition of the willing invaded Iraq on the pretext to find the weapons of mass destruction in 2003, but never found any. They knew Iraq had had them as the US allegedly sold the weapons to the Iraqis(be interesting to see what Wikileaks comes up with on this).

Many believed the real reason for the invasion was to gain the oil (in 2004 an official connected to the oil talks with Iraq told me that there was at that point in time an estimated US$37 Trillion worth of oil untouched in Iraq).

Another reason has since surfaced in the supposed asking by Saddaam at the time of all payments for Iraqi oil be made in Euros which at the time would of allegedly collapsed the US financial system.

But there are bigger weapons of mass destruction out there & all put in place by the US.

That is the name Warren Buffett gave to the derivatives market. Derivatives trading can be quite fun & have dabbled in it with options trading. But most of the derivatives are not traded on the markets & that is where the issues arise.

An estimated 90% of the market in derivatives is done behind closed doors in particular with those like CDO's in which mortgages are on sold.

Don't know what CDO's are or how it works? Basically when a bank or finance company gives you a mortgage you create the currency as it did not exist before you signed the mortgage. So you have just expanded the currency in the world. But the bank or company does it even better, it packages that mortgage with others, some good & some bad & on sells them to another bank or financial group.
The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Second Edition
The entity that gave you the mortgage then collects the interest & payments for the mortgage charges fees on it & the rest goes to the group that bought the CDO.

The problems start when the mortgagees can no longer pay the interest or principle on property. The property then goes into a mortgagee sale or foreclosure in the US. Further problems then come to light as has happened in the US when a legal challenge found the bank who first issued the mortgage then tries to foreclose cannot as they no longer own the mortgage.

This is definitely an issue when the mortgage is a sub prime mortgage as those takng it out where never likely to be able to pay. The next round of a high number of subprime loans are about to hit early in 2011. In fact a lot more than in 2008 & getting bigger as the year moves towards June.
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
So what has all this got to do with weapons of mass destruction?

The financial crisis of 2008 was mainly due to the derivatives market dropping from an estimated US$ 750 Trillion to US$600 Trillion. Whilst the rest of the worlds economy has stumbled from one crisis to another this market has bounced back on course to allgedly have reached its expected 2010 level of a quadrillion with comments it may have doubled during the year to 2 quadrillion which keeps it on target to reach a quintillion by 2020(this is a market that started in 1990 at US$10 Trillion). This market was only allowed to trade on the markets until December 2000 when it was allowed to carryout the 'over the counter' or behind closed door deals.

So What?
All About Derivatives Second Edition (All About Series)
It is through these markets certain items such as oil are manipulated up & others such as silver are manipulated down.

Even a small percentage of collapse involves huge sums of currency. The ways to overcome the fallout of any hiccup in this market generally one way or the other bring about as one commentator stated 'social destablization'.

What?

In other words crime goes up & to areas not normally targeted as happened in New Zealand over the weekend when a pet shop was held up. Somewhere you would not expect to have a lot of currency on hand on a Saturday morning.
Derivatives Demystified: A Step-by-Step Guide to Forwards, Futures, Swaps and Options (The Wiley Finance Series)
You also get protests or riots over school fees, rise in pensions, other austerity measures & more union unrest. Sound familiar?

So if a much bigger amount of sub prime loans are about to come due with the attached CDO's & it hits the derivatives market what then?

More businesses out of business. Greater unemployment therefore greater stress on food & shelter for families resulting in greater unrest & crime. As you delve more into this topic you start to realize why survivalist groups have sprung up in the US once people realized what was going on.

The world has become so reliant on the debt based economy that any slight tremor(like a Sovereign debt crisi in Europe spreading next to the UK then US) could send the house of cards falling down.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is Secrecy necessary?

Kia Ora,

Well Wikileaks has put the cat amongst the pigeons with great effort been put into trying to shut down the site & many questions been asked about the charges alleged against the founder.

Is Secrecy necessary? It is a question many are asking in the wake of the releases.

Overall there has not a lot of real secrets been released this time around. Opinons that are not that much different than people who follow what is going on in places like Pakistan.

Of course they have to be careful that nothing puts people's lives in danger, but overall so far there really hasn't been a lot that people didn't already think was happening. These releases just confirmed the truth.

Some have been on civilians actually killed in Iraq. Though for many in America that might of seemed until now like propaganda against the US, the standing comment by Iraqis when there was when a comment was made about the population was "26 million but now 25 million because the Americans kill so many."
Read My Pins: Stories from a Diplomat's Jewel Box
But is secrecy necessary?

To a certain extent yes.

There are things that are carried out in the name of countries to allow the citizens to carry on their lives as they wish but would not like to know about.

Then there are those situations where to reveal information would put lives at risk. Or the legal risk of those opinons becoming known.

Another reason might be future intentions where it would give an unfair advantage.
Diplomat's Dictionary (Cross-Cultural Negotiation Books)
Overall a little more of what governments alwasy claim they provide but don't, transparency & freedom of speech would be good. When you look into what has happened in the US alone in the way the people have been hoodwinked it is no wonder it is the land of the conspiracy theory because it is actually true. From the turning of the education system into the modern slavery system starting in about 1903 to the secret meetings to set up the private bank now known as the Federal reserve starting in 1904 it never seems to end.

Is some secreacy necessary? Yes, but governments & bureaucrats been more open & honest might just make this world a better place.

It might just remove some of the frustration people feel because they know that things are not as they are told & don't feel the need to lash out.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Marijuana the worst of the drugs!

Kia Ora,

Here we go again. A well known international celebrity was caught with a small amount of Marijuana & his premises here in New Zealand searched.

Next we have a well known New Zealand broadcaster who by his own admission doesn't even touch the stuff slamming the police for doing their duty.

This is exactly the reason why the police now do everythng in a stilted process. No matter what they do they get hammered. It is the attitude of people that the only people who ar wrong are the police. Actually although they do make mistakes they are generally the ones in the right.

But these days the most common drug found around crimes is not methamphetamine better known as "P", but marijuana.

About the same day this incidetn came to light two other issues came to light.

A regular police raid uncovered mainly marijuana, but also items from burglaries, firearms & some "P" amongst other things as they usually do.

The other incident was much more worrying. A driver was sentenced in court for driving a 40 tonne truck & trailer of dangerous goods under the influence of drugs, namely marijuana.
THC Marijuana Dip Strip Test Pack of 10
Initially the driver denied smoking it despite police finding the drug, the pipe for smoking & the fact he was seen smoking. They now deny the fact they have an addiction problem with which the judge disagreed.

As I have said often before working with psych patients at a hospital you seen the damage done by drugs & marijuana in particular. That is why I agree with the police view that it is the worst of the drugs.

People are often hooked on it so they can be convinced to commit crimes, usually burglary, for the dealer.
How to Quit Drugs for Good: A Complete Self-Help Guide
Not to mention it makes people dangerous in the work place & on the roads. It also can be seen in peoples attitude to work & life in general. I have also seen it take a heavy toll on a persons health.

Marijuana is by far the worst of the drugs & there is no way from what I have experienced anyone will convince me otherwise.

"P" might be the drug of the moment & make people dangerous but it is Marijuana that has the worst long term effect on our society.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is it really all just about the World Cup? Are we ready?

Kia Ora,

All you hear about in New Zealand at present is the world cup. That is the Rugby World cup.

That is all everyone is focussed on but they seem to be missing the big picture & they also have this belief that we are ready.

Focus on the Rugby World Cup might be a good thing in some ways as it takes peoples minds off the worsening financial crisis. But it overlooks the big picture.

As I have mentioned before I believe, a former member of the British Special forces raised a similar issue whilst we were working in Iraq.

Every security professional especially ex military were focussing on Iraq & Afghanistan, but what was everyone going to do afterwards? There would not be a lot of extra jobs created world wide to take on all those working in Iraq alone.
Handbook to Practical Disaster Preparedness for the Family
The situation is no different with the Rugby World Cup. For instance everyone say here in Christchurch will be looking to get some work at the cup. Many with a view that it is the only way most locals are going to get to see the good games as it is already far too expensive for tickets.

But there is not enough work & will be even less with the impending world wide financial meltdown to employ all that extra security required outside the actual cup. Even if the Security industry is one that will benefit from the financial crisis.
Disaster Preparedness: A memoir
Then yet again there is the question as to whether New Zealand is ready to host something like the Rugby World Cup.

On the evidence I would say not. Recent incidents include the complete close down of the Auckland international airport, of the Wellington train services again, bomb alerts that take hours for a bomb squad to show up when properly trained security staff might of been able to resolve the situation.

Then there has been the reaction to firstly the Christchurch earthquake. Whilst the emergency services were good though there were no major issues, some of the other associated groups though were not as good as was claimed when everybody were back slapping themselves after the wee shake.
The Complete Idiot's Guide to Disaster Preparedness
Then there has been the response to the mine incident. It is the process/procedures not the personel who have worked well in a very demanding environment. Though information that has since come to light will most likely vindicate their response, the whole process in how we respond to major incidents now needs to be upgraded.
Hostage Rescue Manual: Tactics of the Counter-Terrorist Professionals-Revised Edition
There are claims in the last few days that we are ready for anything including terrorist attacks at the Rugby World Cup.

But again I go back to Iraq where police officers who also served in the military made the comments that "NZ police without a military background even at least territorial should not work security in Iraq." Though those police that did in the main handled themselves well many found it a big change in mindset to policing in NZ. Although there was the one who allgedly tried to sue the recruiter & company for not telling them how dangerous Iraq was.

Excuse me? But that shows the step up in mindset needed.

It is the mindset that counts. As I have said before on finding I worked in Iraq/was in the army many serving police officers have said they are uncomfortable with firearms. Then it comes to having to pull the trigger.

Not as easy as people think from playing video games, not to mention the training needed for it to become instinctive.
Negotiating with Terrorists: Strategy, Tactics, and Politics
When it comes to terrorism anybody can be involved, not just young men with an attitude. That old person who may of lost their relations, the children who have been set up as a suicide bomber(as happened on several occassions in Afghanistan) or even a cow as happened on one occassion(though that one backfired as the cow with explosives inside turned around & followed the insurgents). Can people really pull the trigger if really needed on someone who looks so innocent?

In NZ I doubt it as they have never encountered it & therefore the mindset is never there.

Could I? Don't know as all my shots were warning shots but probably as you knew that at anytime you could be expected too. After one incident it really brought it home you might just have to do it, no matter how innocent they seemed.

Ready for the Rugby World Cup? I doubt it.

As I have said on numerous occassions our processes have to change as if a suicide bomber hits then you have 30 seconds to decide if it was or not as another one is coming.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz

Is Wikileaks the Trigger?

Kia Ora,

In a recent post I wrote about the expected collapse of the worlds financial system & what could trigger it.

Well it is very likely that Wikileaks will provide that trigger as long as they are not shut down in the meantime.

Wikileaks could of averted the one course nations take to avert financial crisis or prolong financial crisis from happening, though in the long run make things worse.

That is going to war!

Although North Korea could be regarded as a loose cannon, that released cables point to the fact that China thinks it might be good to have a unified Korea, could make North Korea realize they need to tread carefully.

Iran too could see things in a different light & the US will have to deal with the fact on both fronts it is now known the Russians think things are not as bad as the US makes out so favour different options.
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So why would Wikileaks be the trigger for the collapse of the worlds financial system.

Its next release(if still in operation) is to be documents concerning one of the big banks in the US(suspected to be the Bank of America as they have said before they have material on that bank) & the corruption involved.

Why would that affect the world?

It is not new news to some, but by coming through Wikileaks it will suddenly be seen by the majority who have been manipulated up until now.
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It could expose for example the belief some commentators have that oil would still be around $US11 if it wasn't for the large banks manipulating through the use of derivatives the price of oil. Or the fact that again through the use of derivatives the price of silver has been manipulated right down.

Silver been of particular interest at present as one commentator(Max Keiser) is promoting the idea of US citizens to buy 100 million ounces of silver to bankrupt JP Morgan. Yet another source though is saying there is only 8 days worth of silver above ground at the present time. So if miners went on strike where silver is produced or everyone tried to buy at once the world would be in serious trouble as silver is essential to all modern electronics. Amongst other uses.
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Any of those issues coupled with the fact the Sovereign debt criss refuses to go away & is unlikely too. Add in the fact that early next year the US sub prime loans become due again but to a greater amount than in 2008.

What will be the results?

Well people are going to find it more expensive to buy food, unemployment is increasing most places & will continue to do so. Despite the fact US figures are expected to show less unemployment this week which hides the fact 2 million people will be cut from the figures as they have been on unemployment for 99 weeks. They will still be unemployed, just outside the system with another 2 million to be taken off the numbers later this month. Another manipulation.

Crime will increase & many countries where they have thought they have missed the worst of the Depression(not recession) such as Australia & New Zealand will get hit hard. Even here in Christchurch where post the earthquake the rebuilding was expected to assist in the economic recovery.

But though all this will also happen without Wikileaks, it is likely to happen sooner & faster with Wikileaks releasing that information, but the effects will not be as bad as it would if we continue on the present path.
Internet Marketing From The Real Experts
What does that all mean?

Well we have seen with austerity measures increased civil disorder & there will be a corresponding increase in crime.

If hyperinflation kicks in with increasing prices in particular of food we will likely see food riots & again a rise in crime.

This is why you see China ignoring the US. China's biggest fear are its own people, not the US & so it is trying to manage its economy to ensure its people have jobs, cash & food. It is appearing to look to raise the Yuan at its own pace because if they do it quickly it will have two effects. One put many of businesses out of business & two destroy the US economy completely. By taking its time it hopes to change the businesses to allow the Chinese people to buy the goods they produce.
Rich Dad's Advisors: Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver: Protect Your Financial Future
Allgedly the Chinese have stockpiled a lot of commodities to keep their industries moving as the world collapses around it. China has also been investing a lot in commodities in emerging economies in Africa & South America. Lastly like many Asia governments it has apparently being encouraging the people to purchase gold & silver.

China & Russia are now bypassing using the US dollar in trading between the two as they obviously see the US currency as toast.

But as said in a previous post it means the it is time of opportunity as long as you educate yourself & prepare.

It also means that security will be a growth industry.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz