Many of the financial commentators I follow are of the opinion that the US is likely to have either a revolution or civil war based on the fact that the actions been taken by the Federal Reserve have now made conditions worse than the French Revolution. All it needs is a few tweaks & it will all come tumbling down. Tweaks like inflation causing the amount spent weekly on food from the take home pay to rise.
That has been seen as the real trigger behind the continuing unrest in the Middle East.
Meanwhile here in New Zealand the belief it will never happen here. But then that is the claim for just about everything here.
One person said to me that New Zealand would never have a revolution as it is all too PC so no one would want to offend anyone.
Though I think it is more complex than that & the PC New Zealand is actually breeding conditions right for it to happen.
We have had in the past what amounted attempts to change governments. The 1913 waterfront strike been the first broken up by what became known as Massey's Cossacks as Terroritorial mounted units rode to town to break it up. Both sides were a year later fighting for King & country in Egypt & a year later Gallipoli.
Then in 1951 again it was the water front strike where the Unions took on the government who sent in the police & army.
The Oxford History of the French Revolution
The difference these days is the power of social media to quickly organize then mobilize people. In particular young people(its the young that have been at the heart of all recent issues around the world) who because of our PC society think they have all the rights. Right there is one requirement for a riot from the start. A shared common belief.
For years now our youth like those across the world have been using different forms of social media to organize. Not long after returning from security work in Iraq I was called to help at a birthday party. The expected 70 people went to 300 in about five minutes by use of text(SMS) messages. Good use of a note book & knowledge of the law soon had that back to the expected 70.
A week later two young girls died when a party got out of control & police were confronted by up to 1000 people also organized by text message.
The Dragonfly Effect: Quick, Effective, and Powerful Ways To Use Social Media to Drive Social Change
More recently facebook has been used to organize parties on beaches in Auckland then even more recently a party in Greymouth where police were attacked.
It is no mistake that governments in the middle east shut down social media but by then it was too late.
As they used to say a person would tell six people if they were upset who would tell six people. With emails it was said this changed to 200 people told. With social media you tell the world & once it is out there right or wrong there is no stopping it.
30 Days to Social Media Success: The 30 Day Results Guide to Making the Most of Twitter, Blogging, LinkedIN, and Facebook
For those a bit older like myself it has been hard to understand first the appeal then how it could affect what we do or our society. We did know that society was changing especially in the likes of security because we were confronting it often & still are.
It was one of those 'aha' moments to realize how immensely powerful these new tools were. Governments still do not realize just how powerful. By their nature bureaucarcies move slowly even when efficient which they generally are not. They can not combat the speed at which social media works.
Using New Zealand as an example of what may happen there needs to be a focal point. Now similar to what happened in Italy at one part where one march was joined by several groups with different gripes with the government resulting in unrest could happen here.
The New Social Learning: A Guide to Transforming Organizations Through Social Media
For example shortly there is likely to be a Hikoi(march on a point of disagreement by mainly the Maori community) heading to Wellington(our capital city) now other groups could join in at Wellington such as Unions, citizens of Canterbury upset about the poor government response to the earthquake(as happened in Italy) so you suddenly have a lot of upset people in one place.
It would be easier with social media to suddenly add to that a large group of youths who have been watching youtube & think it would be great to emulate others around the world.
People say others would not take part but once something like a riot starts or builds people get caught up in the feeling. From there seeing what has happened around the world it is only a short step to the next level then another dominoe falls.
Social Media 101: Tactics and Tips to Develop Your Business Online
What has started in the Middle East could easily continue around the whole world & with social media involvment no country is safe from its effects. It really is that powerful when combined with other ingredients & like a row of dominoes.
There is word now that Algeria has stockpiled food to give out to its people to help settle tensions. China has not just stockplied commodities to keep its industry going through the hard times but guaranteed access to some food, though they have banned the people from hoarding food.
It will be interesting to see if this time tested form of appeasing people can stop the dominoes or even outpace social media?
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
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