A well known statement which when I looked it up on Wikipedia shows that no one knows for certain where it came from.
It was popularized by Mark Twain who attributted it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli whom it appears never said it. It has more recently been attributed to Sir Charles Wentwood but with no certainty.
It is the statistics that concerns us most today.
But before we go there further on in the wikipedia entry on the above quote was another which I quite liked.
"There are three types of unreliable witnesses, a liar, a damned liar, & an expert." Robert Giffen 1892.
Now in a recent post I wrote of the only real experts in counter terrorism would be memebers of the SAS/former SAS or a former terrorist. The difference been is that none of them would claim to be experts, but would have the experience to back it up.
It is those that claim the expert tag that you have to watch. We have seen that a lot lately with so called experts all contradiciting each other & any debate or opinion offered always countered by; "what do you know? They are listening to the experts."
Statistics, 4th Edition
The reason for the quote today though is a government statistic has been released on crime. The statistic to be least trusted is a government one.
Now several years ago a New Zealand media outlet quoted figures of 95% of crime & 96% of violent crime is not reported in New Zealand. No one knows where they got those figures from but what we do know is a lot of crime is not reported.
Now people take some note when you say most crime is not reported but they really take note when you say 95% is not reported even though where the figures come from no one knows.
Statistics in Plain English, Third Edition
This new government statistic says that around 66% of crime is not reported but what crime there is happens only in 33% of the population.
Some of the results of the survey of 8000 people needs to be questioned though.
Like reasons for not reporting crime. They don't think police will show, well we already knew that one but when they say people didn't think it was a crime you have to ask how did it get in the survey then?
What do we know then?
Most crime actually happens in the poor neighbourhoods & many then do not report because they are anti/don't trust the police, don't like to be seen as a dobbing in their mates, just don't want to know or are scared of possible action been taken against them or their family.
Principles of Statistics
One comment from the survey shows it is all academically based as opposed to facts.
Many people mentioned they felt safe in their area.
One of the most common things you hear when a murder or violence occurs is "Can't believe it would happen around here as it is such a quiet street."
It is amazing how many people these days who have no idea what actually happens in their street let alone neighbourhood.
Someone was heard to quote that remark here in Christchurch recently after a murder.
"It is such a quiet street & area nothing happens here." Yet from the vicinity of the street where the murder was there had been about five murders from memory within a kilometre, some even closer in last few years. It is regarded as a high crime area.
In fact thought there had been a murder in that street mentioned.
Statistics for Dummies
The statistics are on the right track but I don't think reflect reality. It is a lot worse that people like to think it is & right now getting worse due to the worsening financial crisis.
The worsening financial crisis has being said to be one of the reasons behind a recent hostage situation & death(the hostage taker) in the US.
But again in something like this survey you really have to take time to talk to people in areas not just ask the questions on a form.
What you hear is how concerned people really are about how safe it is.
Well right up until you say "yes it is getting dangerous out there" then the first thing you hear "yes but not around here." Even though they have just said the opposite a minute ago.
As I have alluded to before a mate was saying "there is not much crime out there I never see it(Taxi driving)." Told them to "open their eyes" & with that spotted two males carrying out a burglary in broad daylight.
Cartoon Guide to Statistics
So though they can give us an idea of what is going on, Statistics are not always that reliable especially government ones.
Gut instinct always is more accurate & people need to open their eyes, not avoid seeing what is going on.
http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz
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