Is there likely to be a Terrorist attack at the Commonwealth Games now they are underway?

Kia Ora,

So now the Commonwealth Games are underway is there a likelyhood of a terrorist attack still? Is all that suffocating security still required?

Well in a word. Yes!

In fact as the games wear on if there is going to be an attack it is more likely to occur later in the games.

By looking at how Al Qaeda in particular has carried out some attacks in Iraq & Afghanistan I see the possibility of an armed assault on the bridge leading into the games village. From reports & images on TV there are still concerns about the security set up there. Either during the assault or after then vehicle bombs making their way in along with surviving assaulters to targeted team facilities.
Inside Terrorism
The teams most likely to be hit are Australia, England (as the most identifiable team of 'Britain') for their high profile in Iraq & Afghanistan.

The other is New Zealand.

First for our perceived connection to Iraq & connection to Afghanistan.

Then there has been the issues of late that have highlighted New Zealand in India & not in a good light.
The Mind of the Terrorist: The Psychology of Terrorism from the IRA to al-Qaeda
Initially there was the complaints laid by the NZ chef de mission which highlighted the poor state of the games village. Some of that was quite well received in India as complaints by locals fell on deaf ears(sounds very familiar to what happens here).

That was followed by the issue over the alleged words said by the CEO of the Commonwealth Games who just happens to be a New Zealander that Indians felt were a slight on the people of New Delhi.
Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind
Since then there have been the Paul Henry issues first regarding the Governor General who just happens to be Fijian Indian which has been followed in India with wideapread coverage of him making fun of an Indian government ministers name.

Not a good look & Paul often engages mouth before brain but he does like Hone raise issues that New Zealand need to look at itself & discuss. They both say what they are thinking & many others are but won't speak up to say. It is actually a NZ trait not to say anything but go whispering behind peoples backs. Just maybe things need to be said in a different way.
Islam And Terrorism
But all that has raised the New Zealand profile not in a good way so immediately the team becomes a target.

So why later in the games? Human nature!

The games are 10 days in duration so as they wear on the security teams will naturally lower their awareness. If you wait until after the closing ceremony then everyone will think, well we got that far it is all good, security will sub consciously at least lower their guard, teams or those still there will party. What better time to hit?
Terrorism Today: The Past, The Players, The Future (4th Edition)
I have actually been part of a high profile security team where one of the supervisors actually said when we caught someone inside who shouldn't be, "oh don't worry about it. We have done well for two & a half days." Excuse me?

There is also an issue I have raised previously which a reporter noted in their article on the games.

First the reporter talks about how suffocating the security is but then talks about better too much than too little if it prevents an attack.
Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century (6th Edition)
Their next comment though makes my point. It was the frustration when you are going through check after check when others just waltz on by just over the way.

As pointed out this was happening in Amman, Jordan at the hotel I stayed at. But it also happened in Baghdad.

Sent with other members of my team to gain the latest pass or piece of paper needed to work there(from memory it was the Iraqi firearms licence) we had to enter the same building as the Interim Iraqi Parliament. One of the team suddenly says "look at that!" A bodyguard for an Iraqi Member of Parliament handed the MP his firearm to smuggle in as MP's did not go through a metal detector.

Of course later on three bombs were smuggled in to a cafe used by Iraqi MP's & exploded.
Insurgency and Terrorism: From Revolution to Apocalypse, Second Edition, Revised
Our response was once inside having cleared our weapons, was to 'make safe'(load a magazine back on our weapons but not cock it) as if there were weapons floating around unknown we had to be ready.

So is the threat over? No way. It is actually increasing.

Current issues highlighting New Zealand is in a bad light that makes our team a highly likely target in any attack.

http://www.foxhoundsecurity.co.nz