Since I started this blog a common thread has been the New Zealand mindset to threats in particular terrorism.
Will that change now a disaster has hit? Frankly from what I am seeing no.
You are seeing people complaining of how the scientists have said consistantly that an aftershock of 6 is likely & that this was not the expected big one(earthquake) from the Alpine Fault line. In fact though many of us including myself thought that is what it was as we are been told a lot it is overdue.
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People say they were scared at the time & I have no doubt most were, but myself I had two thoughts. First was Wow didn't know a tilt slab building could flex so much this is going to fall over. The second was for my father, wider family & our Marae as they are all very close to the Alpine Fault(within 100's of metres). So I am very aware of what can happen & have always taken a keen interest in this.
Having Knowledge can help you overcome the fear.
Too many are in denial. We should be using that knowledge to ensure the rebuilds are stronger, not delaying because someone thinks the historical look of Christchurch will be changed.
A comment by a person helping in the aftermath in response to complaints about bad building standards, was the standards were not designed to save the buildings but lives which is what they did or words to that effect. This means all buildings in the quake zone should be checked to see if they will stand up to another large quake. I know this has been done at least one shopping mall & it was rated to stand up to a specific large quake larger than the one that occurred.
But most people in Christchurch outside those who have been helping or worst affected still are in a form of denial. Even those badly hit think that nothing worse can happen despite the fact no one died. It is something you find in security here in Christchurch. When selling burglar alarms the comment was made that the hardest person to sell an alarm too as they don't believe they need it anymore are those that have been burgled.
A sign in one area says "welcome to Baghdad" & when interviewed by Paul Holmes someone commented it was like "Baghdad on a bad day." In fact they don't even come close. The aftershocks have just been like Baghdad on a normal day.
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There is now a concern for the Rugby World Cup 2011 which has been raised, but again the comments are there is little likelyhood of terrorist attacks.
It is the same type of denial when after some of the recent earthquakes have come from a new epicentre in the old volcano that is now Lyttleton Harbour. Questions about the volcano have been dismissed by the experts as it has not been an active volcano for 5.8 million years. Thing is only about two weeks ago it was reported a volcano that had been extinct for a very long time(sorry can't recall the years but it was enough to make you think) erupted.
Just because something is not likely doesn't mean it won't happen.
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So will there be a change in mindset?
I very much doubt it. A few more will take been ready for an earthquake seriously, many wll ditch their emergency kits within a year as they forget the whole thing. Most will figure it has happened once so will not happen again to them (despite there been a few who have been through two or three other quakes of similar magnitude in the city).
There is no difference there to the attitude of a likely terrorist attack here in New Zealand.
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Yes, I heard about that supposedly extinct or dormant (I don't remember which they actually said) volcano erupting (in Sumatra or the Philippines ?). Lyttleton Harbour is definitely a volcano. I attended an official debrief from Government scientists in Wellington a week after the quake. They were in complete denial mode concerning any volcanic factor. Their plate tectonic theories are also used to explain the dissemination of fauna and flora around the world. So most quakes have to be explained in terms of shifting plates when forces in the underlying magma is the real or most direct driver. Dr David Wratt (NIWA) told me that "120 to 130" warm water lakes are lying underneath Antarctica's ice cap. That means the ice there is melting from underneath on the landmass. We can actually see the effect Mt Erebus has had over the centuries. It has caused a large amount of Antarctica to lose its ice. But scientists are in denial mode there too with no mention whatsoever in the IPCC Reports. Clearly man is not responsible for ice melt underneath Antarctica's ice cap. Volcanic action is responsible.
ReplyDeleteIf volcanic action is ultimately responsible for Christchurch's current quakes we have to prepare because like Vesuvius (AD 79) there will be many warning signs prior to a major eruption.
Yes, modern science needs a change of mindset. Peer review is failing in the Academy and science is driven by philosophy or commerce these days. I have been demonstrating this in my own research into ancient Middle Eastern History (refer my blogs below). The chronologies of the pharaohs, the dynastic structure, etc., is all wrong with far too many fake dynasties and a start date that should be circa 2200 BC rather than 3000 BC for the 'First Dynasty'. If Christchurch finds she is sitting on a volcano or a Hanmer Springs-Rotorua like thermal area then modern science will also find itself going up in smoke.
http://don-stewart-research.blogspot.com/
http://donaldstewart-researcher-mary-magdale.blogspot.com/
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